arbitrage: $3 risk-free thanks to Syracuse!

2ndGoat · #1 03-16-2005, 08:53 PM

I just had to try it.

I bought 5 shares of Syracuse to make the final 4 at $16 on wsex. I sold 50 shares (worth 1/10th as much) for the same event at tradesports at 1.70$. I paid $2 in fees in the mean time, and got a net result of +$3, no matter what Syracuse does in the tournament.

Of course, I locked up $495 for the next 2 weeks in order to do it, and spent 2 hours looking at all this stuff, but damnit, I beat the system!

2ndGoat

mosquito · #2 03-16-2005, 08:56 PM

Congrats!

ctv1116 · #3 03-16-2005, 08:58 PM

haha, good work.

2ndGoat · #4 03-16-2005, 09:12 PM

There's about $150 to be made on tradesports by shorting mario on american idol (i understand he left the competition) if you sold to all the people that are currently offering .2-.4. You just have to be willing to front $80000 til the end of the show... of course, if there was some shocking reversal and he returned triumphantly, you'd have to be awfully nervous.

2nd

sfwusc · #5 03-16-2005, 10:19 PM

That might be people who sold him short trying to get their money free----right?

.4 on $100 isnt a very good interest rate though. You need to annualized ofcourse.

SWUSC

FlFishOn · #6 03-16-2005, 10:39 PM

...when the cash is back in your account. Til then you've got $500 at risk. Yes, risk.

But really, your play here is no riskier than say, Enron stock.

2ndGoat · #7 03-17-2005, 12:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
...when the cash is back in your account. Til then you've got $500 at risk. Yes, risk.

But really, your play here is no riskier than say, Enron stock.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I chose to consider risks of cashout failure or business disappearance, this bet would be -EV. But that makes it no fun so I choose to ignore it. Thank you for providing that smug rain on my parade that I was so desperately seeking [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Really, the purpose of the exercise was to demo a couple sites.. I've never bet sports before, and likely will not do so with any regularity, but I'd like to know what's out there. Other than that, it was obviously a pretty stupid idea to tie up that much money even without taking your concerns into consideration. ("Yes, stupid.") I posted it for a chuckle.

2nd

Petro · #8 03-17-2005, 12:29 AM

If WSEX or tradesports goes belly up in the next two weeks, I've give both of you $500. It's just not going to happen.

2ndGoat · #9 03-17-2005, 12:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If WSEX or tradesports goes belly up in the next two weeks, I've give both of you $500. It's just not going to happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now you've got $500 at risk. Yes, risk. <duck>

FlFishOn · #10 03-17-2005, 09:39 AM

"If I chose to consider risks of cashout failure or business disappearance, this bet would be -EV."

Your play is +EV, just not $3, more like $2 or $1.

I got burned by a joint going tits up holding my money. My sunny disposition went with my money. If I amortize the loss over all the online transactions that have gone as they should it amounts perhaps < 1/2%