Pokerroom $15K - Near Final Table Decision

[Cleveland Guy]

This is from my run the other night in the Pokerroom $15K.

Another poster and I had some conversation on it, so I thought I'd post the hand seperately.

We are down to 13 Left in the Pokerroom 15K. I was one of 3 chip leaders when 20 were left, but after taking a couple of tough beats I'm down below average.

I have about 56K left (before Posting) Blinds are 3000/6000 - and going to go up in about 1-2 hands.

Payout structure is 11-13th get $143 ($22 Entry), then final ten it starts to esclate with first place getting $3,000. 8th place gets about $250

On the hand in question I am in the BB with A5s.

Folded to the cutoff who has a bit over 100,000 in front of him. He puts out a min-raise - to 12,000.

I feel I have 3 choices -

1. Fold cause I think he has a real hand
2. Call the min raise (it's about 3.5-1 to call) (6K into 21K)

3. Push - my hand isn't great, but he did do this from a steal position, and a call by him is still almost 40% of his remaining stack.


What's my best play? Why?

Lets assume that the CO is your normal player - since we have been togther he hasn't been to tricky, but hasn't been out of line either.

Thanks for the advice.

[Simplistic]

based on your read here I'm not sure if I would push. he could be on a steal and if that's your read then push. incidentally this happened to me on a PS sng, except this guy raised UTG and I had a solid feel he was on a steal UTG. I pushed my small-mid stack with A7 and he flipped up J7. rivered a J and I was on my way out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jimotto]

I assume the blinds are going up to 6000-12000? So you'll be at roughly 4 bb in the next orbit with 6-7 at the table. If he folds to your push, or a call and flop push, the 21,000 in the pot takes will put you at 6 bb. You basically get an extra orbit. It's borderline, but you may not get a better spot before blinding out, especially if it takes a couple orbits before the final table forms. I think I push.

The other question is push preflop, or call the bet and push the flop no matter what comes up (barring flopping a made hand). I don't think calling and folding the flop is an option. I think I prefer pushing preflop and hoping for a fold.

[otnemem]

Was that last night at the 160 Double Shootout? I think I was at your table...

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
I assume the blinds are going up to 6000-12000? So you'll be at roughly 4 bb in the next orbit with 6-7 at the table. If he folds to your push, or a call and flop push, the 21,000 in the pot takes will put you at 6 bb. You basically get an extra orbit. It's borderline, but you may not get a better spot before blinding out, especially if it takes a couple orbits before the final table forms. I think I push.

The other question is push preflop, or call the bet and push the flop no matter what comes up (barring flopping a made hand). I don't think calling and folding the flop is an option. I think I prefer pushing preflop and hoping for a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Blinds next level go up to 4-8K.

So Folding 50K = 6BB

Winning 21K = 71K = 9 BB

Doubling Up 115K = 14 BB

[jimotto]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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I assume the blinds are going up to 6000-12000? So you'll be at roughly 4 bb in the next orbit with 6-7 at the table. If he folds to your push, or a call and flop push, the 21,000 in the pot takes will put you at 6 bb. You basically get an extra orbit. It's borderline, but you may not get a better spot before blinding out, especially if it takes a couple orbits before the final table forms. I think I push.

The other question is push preflop, or call the bet and push the flop no matter what comes up (barring flopping a made hand). I don't think calling and folding the flop is an option. I think I prefer pushing preflop and hoping for a fold.


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Blinds next level go up to 4-8K.

So Folding 50K = 6BB

Winning 21K = 71K = 9 BB

Doubling Up 115K = 14 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that changes things for me. I'd fold then. You have time to wait for a better spot/steal.

[i wanna be me]

Cleve - I think this is a pretty easy fold....you're better than most of the other players there. You can find a better spot IMO. PokerRoom players LOVE ace-rag, and you're probably being beaten by A6 or A7.

[Roman]

stop n go would work really well then wouldnt it?

[Potowame]

This is one of those tough spots, I know alot of players on here just say fold you have A5s facing a raise. But I think there is a long thought process you need to go through here before you make the "right" move, not what move you should make in a vacume.

First, betting patterns of player. What hands has he shown down from a mini raise? there is two defaults I usually go by.

1. mini-raise AA-QQ looking to get action

2. mini-raise AJ-A7 KQ KJ 77-22 (where am I)

All other hands, AK,AQ 88-JJ + pure steals are usually played more aggressively , they don't want to see a flop and in most cases (with AK,AQ 88-JJ) they are ahead, and can risk 3-4bb, or way behind with a pure steal (want you to fold to the added pressure).

From there,if its 1, your only really worried about AA, and if a ace hits you have to feel that AA is unlikly. With the added Flush and str8 possiblitys, I think you could justify a call here with the odds and let it develop. A fold is not to far from a call here, but I think I would just go for a fold and move on. If your read is of a monster hand like this your villians thoughts on your table image of course have no bearing because he is calling a push, 99% of the time.

If its 2, You have to recall what villian had done in similar positions to a push. Post flop play for me is tricky with these #2 because thier range is so big to the mini raise. If he has laid down several times to a push or large reraise, this could make a lean towards a push. If he has called with hands like A10,A9,77 , no way I am pushing here. In #2 your table image does come into play alittle more, the previous bad beats might make players think you are a little tilty , so a push might get called by a weaker hand, Like A10 or 77 [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]. I think a Push, call or fold are all pretty close on this read.


Bla Bla Bla right,lol. In most cases I just fold and look to steal when its my turn, but I do think I am giving up alot here. You will be in perfect position to steal when the blinds go to the next level, with high fold equity.

[schwza]

i would dump it.

a) push: i think this is horrible. you're too deep to get called by KQ, so the only hands that are calling you are bigger A's and pocket pairs 55+. you are ~30% to win against this range (no pokerstove at work). it would be better to push with K5s so at least you're not dominated by bigger A's. and you wouldn't push K5s, would you?

b) call: this is going to be dicey. say an A flops. are you willing to stack off? if so, you could be be on your way out if one flops. but if you are ahead, you probably will just win his (one) bet on the flop.

if you bet out on a flop you missed, you have to both have him miss and have him not play back. yuck.

c) fold. yeah, your hand's probably better, but this is gonna be very tough to play.