Is this too weak tight?

[Scuba Chuck]

I deliberately chose not to use the converter here...

***** Hand History for Game 1742305334 *****
50/100 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 10427849) - Tue Mar 15 22:55:27 EST 2005
Table Table 14435 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: piskoli (670)
Seat 2: NICOBEAR (1195)
Seat 3: jmf3926 (590)
Seat 4: BigE33 (950)
Seat 5: Flahr (640)
Seat 6: Scuba_Chuk (1355)
Seat 7: Joeykswt1 (865)
Seat 8: andnow (680)
Seat 9: Birrittella (370)
Seat 10: OleDrippy (685)
Flahr posts small blind (25)
Scuba_Chuk posts big blind (50) Note: I am the BB
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Scuba_Chuk [ Tc, Td ]
Joeykswt1 raises (200) to 200
andnow folds.
Birrittella folds.
OleDrippy folds.
piskoli folds.
NICOBEAR folds.
jmf3926 folds.
BigE33 folds.
Flahr folds.
<font color="blue"> Scuba_Chuk: u got a pair Joe?
Joeykswt1: npe
Joeykswt1: i will call any raise
Joeykswt1: so bet your aces </font>
Scuba_Chuk folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 275
piskoli balance 670, didn't bet (folded)
NICOBEAR balance 1195, didn't bet (folded)
jmf3926 balance 590, didn't bet (folded)
BigE33 balance 950, didn't bet (folded)
Flahr balance 615, lost 25 (folded)
Scuba_Chuk balance 1305, lost 50 (folded)
Joeykswt1 balance 940, bet 200, collected 275, net +75 [ Ad Kh ] [ high card ace -- Ad,Kh ]
andnow balance 680, didn't bet (folded)
Birrittella balance 370, didn't bet (folded)
OleDrippy balance 685, didn't bet (folded)

Well, he knew I didn't have aces. And I kind of sensed he had AK before I asked. Regardless, the range of hands I put him on led me to believe I was a dog. But then again, these are the $22s.

[Apathy]

Scuba man... you really hate playing flops eh?

You make a great PF read and then waste it by folding, use your read, see a flop and outplay him.

[shoeman]

Wow! 10 handed at the 50/100 blind level. This is a situation I wouldn't be familiar with. Seems like you had a pretty good read. Even with no read, I like a smooth call here. Play the flop.

[pokerlaw]

You have to put in 150 chips to call with 275 in the pot, the odds are solid and so is your starting hand. I would get in there and gamble. good read btw.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Scuba man... you really hate playing flops eh?

You make a great PF read and then waste it by folding, use your read, see a flop and outplay him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Call and push on a safe flop.

Do not pass on solid +EV plays when you have the villian covered.

[Scuba Chuck]

Am I giving too little credibility to my read? I am probably 4 tabling here. It was just instinct. A 150 bet could be anything from JJ+, AQ+. But the 200 bet seemed a little more like it didn't want to be called.

Furthermore, I would need to give just as much credibility to AQ as well, IMO. Therefore, I would need to hope that an A, K, or Q doesn't hit the flop for me to win this post flop. What is the probability that one of those cards hits the flop? I'm guessing here, but isn't it like a 60% probability? Obviously, it needs to be reduced some for a Ten hitting the flop...

I fold for three reasons, the above was one of them. The second reason is that I would be out of position on the flop. The other reason, was that I thought I had a good chip position considering the stage of the current game. This thinking might be a leak btw.

[ColdestCall]

I'll go against the grain here and say there is nothing wrong with this fold. Sure, if he turned over AK before you had to make a decision, you would call. But the fact is, you will be out of position on the flop, and it is pretty likely that an overcard or two is going to flop. Or, maybe Villain has JJ, QQ, KK or AA. Basically, you thought he had AK, but you were far from sure, or you wouldn't have folded. If you call and the flop comes undercards, you are going to push and only get called when you are losing. If you call and the flop comes with a Q, K, or A, you are pretty hard pressed to push and, if you dont, you are going to fold (150 chips poorer) when preflop raiser bets. If the flop comes J xx, you will push and likely take down the pot. Do you really need to go to war here? You are chip leader, and a bunch of people are almost at the point where they are going to be making desperation all-ins.

I would fold here, feel very weak-tight, and talk to myself about it right up until I cashed.

Edit: Posted b4 I saw your reply to Phil.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold here, feel very weak-tight, and talk to myself about it right up until I cashed.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your entire post were pretty much my thoughts (I was posting at the same time). There are a lot of arguments to be weak-tight in a tournament. I think it is more of a compliment. But there is obviously a fine line, and I'm curious how close I'm coming here.

Does anyone know the probability of a flop hitting an A, K, or Q?

[poboys]

Normally, I'd say call, and play solid after the flop. You are getting a decent overlay T75. However, in this situation, I'd fold. This table is pretty tight, all TEN players left in Level 3 at a $22 table? Yikes.

The blinds are starting to go up, you are the chip lead, and you can now start picking up the blinds against the middle of the pack. I think that for Level 3/4 (assuming my guess that everyone's pretty tight) is much more profitable than your posted situation.

[Raiser]

With you holding 2 tens and not knowing what your opponent had there is a ~43% chance that the flop doesn't contain an A, K, or Q.