Too aggressive with this draw on the turn?

[MarkGritter]

Pacific Poker 0.25/0.50 Omaha 8 or better, 10 handed.

Reads: BB is fairly tight but passive. MP2 and MP3 call to the river most hands. No good read on UTG or UTG+2.

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises, BB calls, 4 calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (12 SB, 6 players)

Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8.5 BB, 5 players)

Hero bets, UTG raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero...?

At this point I figured that UTG had at least a T and maybe a full house. Is it worth pumping my draw here? There are 4 outs (T's and K's) to a better full house which takes the whole pot. They're worth 9% equity. Any 4, 5, 6, or 7 gives me the nut low. That's 16 outs to a 50% share, or an additional 18% equity, for a total of 27%, which is a tad more than the necessary 25%.

But, there is a significant risk of getting quartered here, so my play was probably incorrect (and in addition MP2 had only 1.5BB left so I wasn't even getting a full 2 BB from everybody.)

How much would you discount due to quartering in this situation? Would you pump the turn with 5 players instead of 4?

... Hero raises, UTG raises, MP2 calls all-in for $0.75, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (24 BB, 4 players, 1 all-in.)

Hero bets, UTG raises, MP3 calls, Hero raises, UTG raises, MP3 calls.

Overaggressive again? Based on MP3's previous play I thought there was a better than 50% chance he didn't have A2 and was calling with a worse low or maybe a T or flush for the high.

[gergery]

i call the turn.

I count 2 outs for the K's. I'll be generous and give 1 out for a T. The 16 outs for low are worth about 6.5 scoop equivalent outs. If you're quartered it would be half that, and its ~35% likely someone has A2, more given how the hand is played, so let's count that as 4.5 outs.

Altogether that's 8 outs.

Assume they've got a T and there are 43 unseen cards so you're getting ~4.4 to 1 odds here. Easily enough to call, not enough to raise with only 3 opponents.

I would have check-called the river given the action. You make money if an opponent will have A2 less than 66% of the time. They'll be dealt it 35%, and given how MP3 played i'd be surprised if he didn't have it, but if he's terrible then i guess capping this could be profitable.

--Greg

[bodie]

If you look at this hand as if you were playing it at higher stakes, then all the choices change in the sense that it's hard to be sure if others are betting more loosely since it's at such low limits.
However -
your starting hand is very nice for a SB hand - but you have no protection for your low. You have a nut spade flush possibilty and the two Kings. So your raise makes sense here.
On the flop - no more spade flush possible; now you're drawing to the nut low but you're very vulnerable. There's a heart flush possible and the Kings so far have missed. I might have wanted to check here to see a free card. You bet and almost everyone called - again, is that because it's such low limits, or do they actually have something? Impossible to know - but you don't want to get sucked into playing differently than you would at higher limits. You also don't want to "fall in love" with your hand just because it "should" be a winner.
On the turn a full house is enabled and you don't have it, but you bet - it would seem that UTG has a made hand while you are still drawing all the way around. I wouldn't have bet or reraised, but would have waited to see what the river brings. You may at best be playing for half the pot at this point or even less - so why throw money away on what is essentially a bluff. Of course, only you know the other players, and that's important...lots of things are justified when you have a history of your opponents to rely on. Still, you are playing very aggressively in a game where the nuts most often wins. Thinking ahead to when you play higher limits might help with that idea. I play at a B&M where I watch very aggressive players like that win some, but most often lose huge pots where they kept betting and betting into made hands.
The river gives you the nut low, though we don't know how many others have it - your King doesn't come (darn!) -
I'd be curious to know the Results.

[royaltrux]

I would not bet this on the turn for the reasons the above posters stated.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be curious to know the Results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Board: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

UTG shows Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the full house, tens over threes, and wins high.

MP2 shows 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a busted flush draw.

MP3 shows 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for the second best high and the second-best low.

Hero wins low with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[arcticfire]

I think you may have been just a tad agressive yes. I would have check-called the turn myself. However I would have capped the river for sure.

I don't discount outs because I "might" get quartered in low loose limit omaha8. Most times you have the dead money to cover any decision that would be affected by being quartered.