Why is Gonzaga such a huge favorite against Winthrop?

slogger · #1 03-15-2005, 02:12 PM

I try not to put too much stock in the computer ratings, but they suggest an 8.5 point spread and Pinnacle currently offers Winthrop +13.5.

What additional information sways the line by 5 points?

ojsdaman · #2 03-15-2005, 02:39 PM

i am not sure why the 5 points, but a bit of the difference is definately due to everyone being on the gonzaga bandwagon for the 3rd straight year...some people will bet on them just because they have heard of them....i dont know what to think of gonzaga this year so i am going to stay away from bets on them...they beat so many good teams, yet lost poor ones...you never know what you are going to get with them...plus they are ranked real high in the polls this week...

hogua · #3 03-15-2005, 03:26 PM

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to everyone being on the gonzaga bandwagon for the 3rd straight year.

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Assuming this is true and that the line is being driven by public assumptions, sounds like there could be a great deal of value in Winthrop plus the points. Sounds liek rathe rthan just staying away from Gonzaga, you should think about betting against them.

Keep in mind, I no little about college hoops and don't play on getting to involved in betting the tourney. I'm not saying I agree with the line, but, if what you say is correct, than the line must be wrong. If it is, there's value there.

MicroBob · #4 03-15-2005, 04:58 PM

I didn't look at the ratings where you found the 8.5 point difference...but Winthrop comes from a pretty lousy conference. I believe every team in their conference had a losing overall record except them.

In the meanwhile, Gonzaga is pretty darned good.

I don't think Winthrop is a terrific bet here...however, the idea that gonzaga's popularity could be driving the line up a bit is warranted so there could be some value there.

tech · #5 03-15-2005, 05:00 PM

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Winthrop comes from a pretty lousy conference.

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So does Gonzaga. Gonzaga has been overvalued all year, thus their less than stellar ATS record. That said, I'm not sure how to cap this game, just because I don't know jack about Winthrop.

#6 03-15-2005, 05:51 PM

My recollection is that, historically, Winthrop has been one of the most competitive small schools in non-conference matchups with much more powerful schools. This year it doesn't look like they played many big teams, but they did have a win at Providence. That having been said, Gonzaga has some very impressive wins, particularly the win at Ok. St.

ojsdaman · #7 03-15-2005, 06:05 PM

niss- i agree with what you are saying,, but the reason i am staying away is due to gonzanga being terribly inconsistant. They remind me a good deal of this years georgia tech team. They play incredible sometimes, and terrible the others. I dont like to bet on teams where i dont know what i am going to get. I would guess gonzaga must be one of the toughest teams for oddsmakers. I see 3 possibilites for this game
1. gonzaga wins by 25 which is probably what should happen
2. gonzaga wins by 1 after being outplayed all game
3. gonzaga loses by 5 after playing terrible

slogger · #8 03-15-2005, 07:16 PM

Since Jan. 6, Gonzaga has gone 14-3. The average RPI of their opponents in that stretch is 119.

Gonzaga has won those games by 8.5 points per game.

Since Jan. 6, Winthrop has gone 18-0. The average RPI of their opponents in that stretch is 250.

Winthrop has won those games by 12.2 points per game.

So while Winthrop's competition (in 200+ RPi range) has been dreadful, Winthrop has proven to be well above the fray.

Winthrop, with an RPI of 76, rates to be significantly better than Gonzaga's average opponent (119) since Jan. 6.

In games against opponents whose RPI is between 51 and 101, Gonzaga has done the following [in brackets is the spread Jeff Sagarin's rating system would suggest]:

lost at Missouri (84) by 2.............[Zags by 0.5]
lost at San Francisco (72) by 3........[Zags by 4]
won at home vs. San Francisco by 2.....[12]

Against opponents that rate between 101 and 150, Gonzaga has done the following [in brackets is the spread Sagarin's system would suggest]:

won at Washington St. (102) by 2..........[1.5]
won at Santa Clara (142) by 4.............[4.5]
won at home vs. Pepperdine (117) by 14....[13]
won at San Diego (120) by 12..............[5]
won at home vs. Portland (149) by 12......[12.5]
won at home vs. Santa Clara (142) by 17...[11.5]
won at Pepperdine (117) by 7..............[5]
won at home vs. San Diego (120) by 17.....[13]
won at Portland (149) by 16 ..............[12.5]
won on neutral vs. San Diego (120) by 16..[9]

If you had faced point spreads that differed from Sagarin's ratings by 5 points and taken Gonzaga's opponent each time, your record would have been 10-3 and your 3 losses would've been by 0.5, 1 and 2. Your average win would've been by 6 points.

Obviously, this is not the most scientific approach but barring some information that is not publicly available, Winthrop +13.5 looks like an incredibly good value.

ojsdaman · #9 03-15-2005, 07:23 PM

slogger- wow man..that was one of the best quick breakdowns i have seen..you convinced me..thankyou

pryor15 · #10 03-16-2005, 03:04 AM

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Winthrop comes from a pretty lousy conference.

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So does Gonzaga.

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i don't know, the WCC got 2 teams in this year and a 3rd (Santa Clara) knocked of UNC (and i want to say was in the bubble discussion for a bit). Zaga has already beaten a 1 seed (washington), a 2 seed (OK State), and a 5 seed (Georgia Tech). you don't get a much better resume from a mid-major with extensive tourney experience. they don't have any bad losses (as opposed to, say, Pitt, who has a couple (home v. Bucknell, @ St. John's) and was in consideration for a top 4 seed for most of the year before their latest slide.

a 20-point margin by gonzaga wouldn't surprise me a bit.