Early in MTT tourney with AK

[Mez]

Played in a live MTT this past weekend. About 60 people entered, $70+10, chips of 5,000 to start, we’re 8 handed. I’ve played for ~30 min and haven’t made a bet/call. In the last hand of level 1, I get TT in MP, raise 3x, get 5 callers (pretty loose) to see a J xx flop. I bet, called only by SB, bet the next street and take it down.

The very next hand I’m in EP/MP with AKs, blinds are now 50-100, I raise to 300. Villian two to my left min-raises to 500. I havne’t seen him play a hand yet (but he strikes me as a louder type person – one who is capable of a bluff). Anyway, folds back to me. I call.

<Please comment/critize my play>

Flop is AJT rainbow (none in my suit), I check intending to CR. Villian bets 500 very quickly. I put him on AQ or lower, or maybe a premium pair that didn’t want to see the Ace. I CR to 1,700 total.

<Please comment/critize my play>


He moves all-in. We both have about the 5,000 to start and he has me slightly covered. What do you do here and why?

--Mez

[Mez]

Shameless bump of my post. Is the play of the hand really obvious? OR does my post just really suck?

[Simplistic]

i fold here.

TPTK probably isn't good enough here. put him on JT or AJ

[Cleveland Guy]

I think AJ, JT, TT, KQ are all likely here.

Fold.

[mostsmooth]

you check the flop, he bets out.
you checkraised him and he came over the top. hes either got the goods or hes clever enough to make you think he does.
youve committed like 44% of your chips already, top pair, top kick, i think youre behind, but i think youve put yourself in a spot where you have to call (im probably wrong though, just wait for more experienced replies to start rolling in)
if you are considering calling the allin (or if you did infact call the allin), then i think the checkraise should have been an allin checkraise.
also, i dont check this flop.

[Mez]

[ QUOTE ]
I think AJ, JT, TT, KQ are all likely here.
Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
TPTK probably isn't good enough here. put him on JT or AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of these hands are not re-raise hands preflop (at least not for me). Would anyone else reraise with them?

[Potowame]

[ QUOTE ]


I think AJ, JT, TT, KQ are all likely here.

Fold.



[/ QUOTE ]

[edfilan]

I did an analysis where I started with any likely hand he may hold (AA-TT,AK-AT,KQ), and weighted them based on statistical occurrence, likelihood that he would reraise preflop, and likelihood that he would push postflop. I ended up with a 40% chance that you would win a showdown. (Let me know if you want to see my details). Since the pot is now laying you about 5:2, I agree with the previous poster that you are pot committed and should call.

[Mez]

I would very much like to see this - if you don't want to post, PM me.

This was a semi-tough decision for me, aided by lack of sleep and some hair of the dog...(maybe a tuft of hair).

However, I'm also interested to hear opinion on preflop play. I had a chance to re-raise w AK (but out of position). Should I have done so?

On the flop, should I have bet out?

[edfilan]

The weights based on number of ways a hand could be made are as follows: AA-1, AK-6, AQ-8, KK-6, KQ-16, AJ-6, AT-6, QQ-6, JJ-3, TT-3.

Now for some subjective guesses. Tell me if I'm way off. I weighted each hand from 1 to 3 based on the probability he would reraise preflop: AA-3, AK-3, AQ-2, KK-3, KQ-1, AJ-1, AT-1, QQ-3, JJ-2, TT-2.

Next, I weighted each hand from 1 to 3 based on the probability he would bet then reraise all in. Again, this part is only a guess: AA-3, AK-2, AQ-2, KK-1, KQ-3, AJ-3, AT-3, QQ-1, JJ-3, TT-3.

Next, I multiplied the 3 weights together for each hand and divided by the total. This is the likelihood that he is holding each hand: AA-9/233, AK-36/233, AQ-32/233, KK-18/233, KQ-48/233, AJ-18/233, AT-18/233, QQ-18/233, JJ-18/233, TT-18/233.

Finally, I multiplied each likelihood by the % chance that you would win a showdown against it (I quickly estimated these), and added up the results: AA-9/233x16%, AK-36/233x50%, AQ-32/233x84%, KK-18/233x84%, KQ-48/233x8%, AJ-18/233x30%, AT-18/233x30%, QQ-18/233x84%, JJ-18/233x16%, TT-18/233x16%.

The result is about 42%. I realize that the individual percentages may be off somewhat since I quickly guesstimated based on the number of outs.

So all you had to do was go into the tank and figure all of that out before the director called the clock on you [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]