AK - A Krisis of confidence

[Elem100]

Villian is UTG in a 10-handed sng, bb is 30

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

<font color="#CC3333">Villian raises to 100</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Hero?


I was supposed to be revising for college exams today but I ended up thinking about up four sides of theory as to how to play big poker hands. I've come up with some things with QQ I'm going to try and im happy with all that, but whats really been getting to me is A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] i.e. offsuit (no not that particular suit combination you jokers). I suppose this is also relevant to the Poker Theory forum, but posting in other places is too much for me to handle, I hope you'll forgive me.

Going back to first principles it seems to me that the value in AK is (disregarding the benefits from table image, getting more action on big pairs etc):

a) Being the raiser, getting one or two callers with holdings like 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (!!), and then representing an overpair, stabbing at the pot with or without a A or K on it.

b) Actually hitting the flop and having TPTK, probably the best hand.

All fair enough, and thats why we raise with it, but what if you're on the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] say, facing a standard pot sized raise from early position, and everyone has folded to you?

Well, Ive spent a long time thinking about the various options and it seems that if:

a) The Villian is solid, and is raising with reasonable early position standards, and;

b) Villian will make a continuation bet on any flop vs 1 opponent

...then the best line is to fold.

If we call:

I wont explicitly write all the expectations out here because I'm sure its an insult to everyones intelligence, but roughly: We'll be fortunate to get 3-1 when we hit and we have the best hand (i.e. he has KK QQ JJ 10-10) (excepting the c25% x 12.5% = 3% chance he has AQ and an A falls...outweighed by the fact we're screwed against AA or KK if a K falls, or nightmare situations like TPTK vs a set), and over 60% of the time we're folding anyway.

So then in despair, I considered the following strategy:

Villian and I both have 1000 chips, I have a solid table image. He raises to 100, but this time on the button I reraise to 400, with the plan of calling his all-in if pushes, and pushing myself on any flop.

His Holdings, and our gain:
---------------------------

AA x 3 - Barring some miracle; -1000*3 = -3000
KK x 3 - We're both going all in preflop; -1000x(72-28)%x3 = -1320
QQ x 6 - All in preflop again; -1000x(0.57-0.43)x6=-840
JJ/1010 x 12 - Given our conservative table image, and the fact we're reraising an early position solid raiser, I'll figure he folds at least 75% of the time, and calls 25% of the time with the intention of playing on if his Jacks are overpair or set up. Gain = 100x75%x12 + 500x12.5%x12 + 1000x12.5%x12x(25%-75%) = +900

AK x 9 - All in 50%, fold 25%, call and hope to improve (a mistake, but he doesnt know he has only 4 outs) 25%. Gain = 0 + 100x25%x9 + 500x25%x9x70% + 0 = +1000 --- This is the line which is potentially the straw in the whole argument. I'm not sure what the right %s are, all-in is his best move here against us, but I can see lots of ppl in sngs just calling. Also given the 2+2 rockness, its highly likely he'll see us for AA/KK.

AQ x 12 - Fold Gain = 100x12 = 1200

So the total gain = -2060. Divide by 33 (# of his hands) and the expectation on the hand is -60.

All it takes is an sng idiot factor (like he calls more often with AK and folds when he misses, or calls with AQ at all, or was raising with 99 and folds some of the time, or even junk) and it breaks even. Plus there's the massive bonus of hoping someone will notice you play AK this way and so next time you're getting more action on your AA/KK.

Obviously this has a greater variance than folding it, and it assumes the blinds dont wake up with a monster.

But if one isnt prepared to make this kind of move with AK, then it seems to me the best action is to fold.


I'm really interested for ppl to input; tell me i'm insane and why etc. What your prefered best play with AKo early in an sng, you have position (which sucks here because he's going to bet into you anyway!) against an early raiser and nobody else?

[Edit: I also analysed an all-in from Hero too, that has a slightly less negative EV, but its not congruent with how we play a big pair, so I guess its worse].

[Voltron87]

Your subject line should read "A Krisis of Konfidence". FYP.

As for the post, it's kind of rambling and has no real conclusion. That doesn't mean it doesn't have an interesting thought... but if it does I don't know what it is.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm really interested for ppl to input; tell me i'm insane and why etc. What your prefered best play with AKo early in an sng, you have position (which sucks here because he's going to bet into you anyway!) against an early raiser and nobody else?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he will make a continuation bet if you just call, but what if you raise? If you raise it will really help define his hand, and make the flop a lot easier to play.

I sometimes raise in this situation, sometimes just call, depending on the size of the original raise, my stack, etc. If I am shortstacked I am going to push here. If we are both big-stacked I am probably going to raise. If I have too many chips to justify pushing, but not enough to avoid getting committed by a raise, I will just call and see what happens.

[codewarrior]

I read as far as this....

[ QUOTE ]

I was supposed to be revising for college exams today

[/ QUOTE ]

Have a nice day!!!