Top pair+ 15/30 stats and math

[Peter_rus]

So i continue to investigate my winnings with some of flop holdings and here is another chapter of seeking out how much is worth top pair on flop. I played 180K of 15/30 and below is analyze of my stats.

1. Conditions:

- I raised preflop and it doesn't matter that i raised first or after limpers or 3-betted/capped. I just push raise button.

- I have top pair or two pairs pr trips or full or quads on flop. It can be monotone or i can pair with flush draw or no, board can be paired or no - there is no difference.

- I have non paired hole cards.

- I'm not a blind.

- It's regardless of how many people see flop.

- All numbers included preflop pot (not only postflop money won)

2. Some help for counting value of a pocket hand preflop:

-probability of catching signific top pair+ flop for your highest card. In bracers probability of top pair+ flop when you want to flop your lowest pocker card. In second case you'll flop TP with your bottom card more as you afraid lesser higher outs as 3 of them will make you at least 2 pairs.

A-high flop and you have an ace: 17.27% (17.27%)
K-high flop and you have king: 13.38% (17.27%)
Q-high flop and you have queen: 10.12% (13.38%)
J-high flop and you have jack: 7.43% (10.12%)
T-high flop and you have ten: 5.27% (7.43%)

3. Value of specific TP's (regardless of your kicker):

Top pair+ of aces: 1156 hands, +1.99bb/h
Top pair+ of kings: 633 hands, +1.95bb/h
Top pair+ of queens or jacks: 598 hands, +2.03bb/h
Top pair+ of tens or lesser: 256 hands, +1.84bb/h

4. Value of TPTK:

-AK
pair of aces: 218 hands, +2.2bb/h
pair of kings: 221 hands,+2.58bb/h

-AQ
pair of queens: 154 hands, +2.49bb/h

- AJ or AT
pair of jacks or tens: 218 hands, +2.17bb/h

5. Second kicker top pair value:

AQ and pair of aces: 175 hands, +2.44bb/h
KQ and pair of kings: 139 hands, +1.27bb/h
KQ,KJ or KT and pair of queens, jacks or tens: 242 hands, +1.96bb/h

6. 3rd or lesser kicker top pair value:

pair of Aces: 763 hands, +1.82bb/h
pair of Kings: 273 hands, +1.77bb/h
pair of queens, jacks or lesser: 482 hands, +1.73bb/h

7. Some preflop cards value only in terms of flopping TP+ ability (no flushes, straights,folding equities, stealing blinds abilities included). So it's only to count how much is worth TP-flopping ability for certain hands.

AK: +0.78bb/h
AQ: +0.74bb/h
AJ: +0.55bb/h
AT: +0.49bb/h
A9-A6: +0.39bb/h
KQ: +0.45bb/h
KJ-KT:+0.44bb/h
QJ-QT,JT:+0.26bb/h

I leave my conclusions to myself and let you to think about these numbers. You know my style and i don't think it's way differ from yours when playing TP on the flop after your preflop raise. You can understand how much TP worth and how often it's happen, knowing your average folding equity and estimating how much worth flush and straights abilities you can set up your proper preflop attack list.

* I guess i have some leaks with overplaying my KQ so numbers for it maybe underestimated.

[DMBFan23]

all of your posts are really cool, they always teach me something.

[Alobar]

another excellent post man, thaqnks