Aces vs an all in river bet

NLSoldier · #1 03-11-2005, 03:43 AM

What would you do on this river and how did I play it up to this point?

Party PL400
Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Hero ($407.6)
Button ($548.65)
SB ($358.2)
BB ($464.2)
UTG ($701.94)
MP ($1584.4)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $15, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $13, 1 fold, UTG folds.

Flop: ($38) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $25, Hero raises to $60, SB calls $35.

Turn: ($158) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $80, SB calls $80.

River: ($318) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB goes all in for 203, Hero???

soah · #2 03-11-2005, 04:36 AM

I think the only way you win this is if he has a busted flush draw. If you've seen him do stupid [censored] like that on previous hands, then look him up. But I'd be pretty shocked if he is value-betting anything that you can beat.

And fwiw, I usually don't raise that on the flop, unless my opponent has given me a reason to believe that he'd only bet out on draws and check his made hands (both weak and strong). I don't want to scare off weak hands that may continue betting into me, and I don't want to go broke against sets. But there are many factors to consider there. Like if he is *always* leading into me after I raise, then I might start raising him both with strong hands and with nothing, etc. But by raising the flop and betting the turn, you've created this difficult river situation. Obviously you want to protect your hand if it's the best, but you should also want to protect the remainder of your stack if you do not have the best hand. It's a balancing act.

BobboFitos · #3 03-11-2005, 04:49 AM

If your plan was to raise the flop, also, you should raise more.

NLSoldier · #4 03-11-2005, 04:59 AM

You make some great points. This is exactly the kind of stuff I need to hear as a limit player testing out some NL/PL. For example, in a limit game the flop raise is totally obvious, but i can see why its alot different in no limit.

I was pretty new to the table so I didnt have much of a read on him but the way he just bet out the pot like that combined with his play the rest of the hand felt alot like a busted flush to me.

TheWorstPlayer · #5 03-11-2005, 06:08 AM

I think there's a reason why my first thought was busted flush draw, soah's first thought was busted flush and your read was busted flush. So either the guy is tricky and is willing to slowplay on a scary board, or he actually has a busted flush. I'm gonna vote for the latter. Looks a LOT like a busted flush.

NLSoldier · #6 03-11-2005, 06:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a reason why my first thought was busted flush draw, soah's first thought was busted flush and your read was busted flush. So either the guy is tricky and is willing to slowplay on a scary board, or he actually has a busted flush. I'm gonna vote for the latter. Looks a LOT like a busted flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad to see some others saw it the same way I did. I called and unfortunately he had JTo instead of a busted flush draw, oh well.

soah · #7 03-11-2005, 07:16 AM

I did not say I thought he had a busted flush draw. I said the only hand hero beats here is a busted flush draw. That's why I asked if the guy had made any similar moves previously. I don't know how aggressive the players are in that game (with bluffs). There are some players in the 1000s that I would never fold an overpair against but the players tend to get less stupid at the lower stakes. (Does that even make any sense?)

TheWorstPlayer · #8 03-11-2005, 09:21 AM

This guy bet into the PFR with JT on a Txx flop. Then he called a raise. Then he called a turn bet without improving. Maybe this board is all 'weak' with our 'fold-fold-fold' advice, but this guy sure looks like he's not that smart to me.

Kaz The Original · #9 03-11-2005, 09:34 AM

If you're willing to call a river like that, you cannot half pot the turn and not raise the full pot on the flop.

NLSoldier · #10 03-11-2005, 07:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you're willing to call a river like that, you cannot half pot the turn and not raise the full pot on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I think the small size of my turn bet was probably my biggest mistake of the hand.