stupid bonus/jackpot question...

whiskeytown · #1 03-08-2005, 11:39 PM

playing 3/6 about two weeks ago at Canterbury and I get pocket 7's -

Now, at late night poker at Canterbury, if you get quad 7's, you get $7777 dollars provided the two 7's are in your hand. - flop comes with nothing, but I'm thinking I could go runner runner, so I call one player's bet

Turn comes a 7 - call again (I don't want to raise, since if they bust out, you don't get the money) - and river a blank, but I call the bet and win the hand.

but now I'm thinking and I'm getting some math wrong probably - - but if I look at implied odds - I THINK I'm getting card odds of 1081/1 (2/47 on the turn and 1/46 on the river) - on making runner runner perfect 7's - but on the flop, it would cost me 3 bucks for an implied pot of $7777, or 2592/1 - not to account for the times when I trip up like I did anyways... -

so even in a 6/12 game it might be profitable to see a turn card with 77, correct? -

Just trying to get a feel for these odds situations - I won't gamble on suited connectors for a jackpot, but the number of times I'll get 77 are as often as I'll get AA, so if it does end up being slightly -EV short term, in theory, it's mega +EV over yrs. - (not like I plan on living that long.)

RB

CMonkey · #2 03-09-2005, 02:52 AM

No, it costs you more than $3 so your implied odds are much lower. How much more depends on the nature of your opponent. If he's liable to bet almost every time on the turn, it costs you nearly $9 to see two cards.

kmvenne · #3 03-09-2005, 05:58 AM

Well you don't call the river without a set, which is a good hand. So it seems +EV to me to call even 3 cold if the set is good enough of the time, since you do win pots as well. By the time you spent $7,777 dollars calling 3 cold on the flop you would be only be giving up about 1.5K in value off the jackpot (expected return of about 6K by this point) and should find the pots equate out to winnings of easily over your 1.5k underlay (since we have seen so much action before you call three cold on the flop, you will win big when you win and obviously from multiple opponents)