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Old 03-08-2005, 08:41 PM
deepsquat deepsquat is offline
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Default Flush probability

When u hit a 4 flush on the flop, the odds of making that flush by the river are 35% correct? If the turn card misses, what odds are you to get the flush card on the river? 17.5%?

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Old 03-08-2005, 10:02 PM
William Notell William Notell is offline
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Default Re: Flush probability

[ QUOTE ]
When u hit a 4 flush on the flop, the odds of making that flush by the river are 35% correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.

(make it on the turn) + (make it on the river) =
(9/47) + (38/47)*(9/46) =
19.15% + 15.82% = 34.97%

So, more 4-flushes are made on the turn than on the river.
[ QUOTE ]
If the turn card misses, what odds are you to get the flush card on the river? 17.5%?

[/ QUOTE ]
9/46 = 19.57%

As you can see, it's not half of 35%. Off the top of my head, I can't think of a meaningful question related to this situation where the river and turn probabilities are equal.
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