AA vs. the world

ktg2469 · #1 03-07-2005, 03:20 PM

First post on this forum so bear with me. I was intrigued by the responses on the "where the hell am i" thread, so decided to post a hand i felt the same way on. I'll just post the preflop and flop since that is where my question lies.

Relevant information: MP1 is TP, MP2 is LP, CO is LP, BB is TAG

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO caps, Hero folds, BB calls, MP2 calls.

My thought at the time was "ok..where the hell did this come from". The check-raise from the BB and the cap from the CO made me think that i'm drawing to two outs. I believed at the time I could be up against 66, 77, or TT from either the CO or BB, and had no clue where the MP2 was at. Thoughts on this?

Bodhi · #2 03-07-2005, 03:43 PM

Don't forget that 98 is a distinct possibility. You would hope that someone has a straight, a set, or at least 2 pair here. Also, some LPs don't raise pf with QQ or KK, and wait to see if an ace flops before they go nuts.

I would call on the flop here to see what happens on the turn. You have position, so if it's bet and raised you can fold. 2 pair is a distinct possibility, and then you have outs. There's the outside possibility that the BB has AT and counted on you to help him protect his hand.

Anyway, the pot is too big to fold for one more bet.

djr · #3 03-07-2005, 03:49 PM

I'd say CO is the one you should be worried about, that a LP first bet and then capped says big strength, figure him to show down a set or straight. Given BB only called preflop probably excludes AA-JJ and AK (ditto for all of them). He might have AQ-AT or TT. He could also be trying to be tricky figuring you for a missed AK (doubtful with CO betting). I'd say he has an ATs, don't see too many TAGs calling in the BB with 89 to a raise. MP is a complete mystery to me, but I don't think he'll be the one showing down the winning hand.

Don't know as I would fold the flop (depends on how good the reads are), but if an ace didn't hit the turn I'd be out at that point.

djr · #4 03-07-2005, 03:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, the pot is too big to fold for one more bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's two more bets. But I agree you probably shouldn't fold with 11:1 odds just yet.

Bodhi · #5 03-07-2005, 03:54 PM

no, it's one more bet, or 2 small bets.

ktg2469 · #6 03-07-2005, 04:24 PM

I was confident in my reads which is why i decided to fold here despite the faint hope that an A on the turn would gain me a monster pot. I thought i could be up against a made straight as well, considering a LP player led at me and then capped. Does an Ace on the turn give me the green light, or does it depend on how the others respond on the turn?

djr · #7 03-07-2005, 04:25 PM

now we're splitting hairs, but ...

You're on the flop, so a "bet" is a small bet not a big bet. Thus, it's two bets.

gvibes · #8 03-07-2005, 04:25 PM

A check/3-bet from a TAG, and a cap from a LP? I think you're drawing to at most 6 outs here, and probably 2. I think that this is a good fold.

Bodhi · #9 03-07-2005, 04:33 PM

An Ace on the turn will win you the pot the majority of the time. When you are against a straight, there are 10 cards that could come on the river to fill you up. Though it's likely that someone has a pair or more already, so you can reduce those outs to 5 or 6.

Bjorn · #10 03-07-2005, 04:43 PM

Well looking over the different possiblities here it looks grim:

Vs Straight you draw almost dead (need runner-runner to FH/quads)
Vs Set you have two outs
Vs two pair you have five outs (two to a set and three to aces up, problem is you never know which flop card is the safe one.)

If you think there is a decent chance that the best hand is TPTK or an overpair despite all the action you could call i guess but my guess is that your aces are toast here.

/Bjorn