#1
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AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
This is from a 2-5NL online game, 5max. I don't have the hand history, this is from memory. My read on the villain was that he was pretty TAG (too tight for a 5max game), and had made several laydowns on hands he had raised preflop, and then raised again on the flop. So basically he was bluffable. I had just bluffed a big pot off of him where I knew he had something like KK or QQ, and the board was ATx. After the bluff, I showed my T8o.
So on to the hand in question. I'm on the button with $800, he's in the BB with $400. I have been playing aggressively on the button; the hand mentioned above, I was on the button as well. I have AK. Two limpers in front of me. I raise to $40. SB folds. BB raises to $210. Limpers fold. I think about this for quite a bit. I'm fairly sure he has QQ. I don't read him to be raising with either KK or AA in such a manner; also, he had been standard raising if at all preflop until this hand. I sense that he was slightly on tilt, which gives me some implied odds. Finally, I call. Pot before the flop is $430. Board comes with three undercards, ten high. No draws that either of us would really worry about. Villain goes in for his remaining $190. I deliberate... then call. Comments? General comments on marginal situations such as this? Results in white below. <font color="white">I hit my Ace on the turn, river was a blank. Villain had QQ, I take down $810 pot.</font> |
#2
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Re: AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
your play is very fishy, you are calling 170 into a 260 pot when you hit your A or K 32% only on the flop, if blanks come you call 190 into a 420 pot with 6 outs AT BEST, to say villian cant have AA or KK is wrong and also on your previous bluff out, how did you know he had KK or QQ, you raised from the button and call his re-raise from BB when you put him squarely on KK and QQ? You cant possibly put an opponent on such a narrow range of hands, its pretty impossible. There is nothing marginal about your play, its real bad.
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#3
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Re: AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
Let's see. Played miserably preflop. Played miserable on the flop.
At least you're true to your name. Nice catch! |
#4
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Re: AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
so you're pretty confident he has a pair and you don't but you call anyway (without the odds) in the hopes of catching 1 of your 6 outs? If you wanted all the money in, the better move would have been to just get it all in preflop and see 5 cards with your 58/42 dog hand. Calling with roughly 2:1 on the flop when you are 3:1 is pretty bad.
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#5
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Re: AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
I've gotten this comment regarding his possibly having AA or KK in both forums.
Please base your judgements and advice on what I have laid out, i.e. he has QQ and I have implied odds on the preflop. Or don't. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] |
#6
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Re: AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
[ QUOTE ]
if blanks come you call 190 into a 420 pot with 6 outs AT BEST [/ QUOTE ] I had to call $190 for $620 pot on the flop. |
#7
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Re: AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
how do you have implied odds hes committing half his stack into a pretty small pot when you only have a 32% of hitting on that flop (dont even count when you hit and still lose) so you are calling 50% of a stack when you have a 32% chance, its not brain surgery.
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#8
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Re: AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
Let me clarify what I meant by implied odds, maybe I used the term incorrectly. I was fairly sure he wasn't going to let me bluff him out of a pot on the flop. So if the board paired my A or K, he would have still gone to the felt.
BTW, I'll give you my take how I played the hand after I get some more comments. You might be surprised. |
#9
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Re: AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
[ QUOTE ]
Let me clarify what I meant by implied odds, maybe I used the term incorrectly. I was fairly sure he wasn't going to let me bluff him out of a pot on the flop. So if the board paired my A or K, he would have still gone to the felt. [/ QUOTE ] The whole problem I have with this hand is that I find it hard to put him on exactly QQ by his play. You say you're fairly sure, but fairly sure doesn't cut it. If you know he has QQ, then the play is fine. You can't commit your stack preflop with AKo (I'd assume you would mention if you had AKs) v QQ, because you're getting 450:360, or a 56:44 on a 57:43 dog. Barely -EV. So don't push preflop. However, you can more than make up for this by calling preflop. Since you say he will commit on any flop, you should then fold any flop containing a Q except QJT. Call almost any other flop (except for something like JT9). A moderate amount of QQ's equity vs. AK is from flopping a Q. By not investing your entire stack in those situations, you can make this a +EV situation. To repeat, if you know he has QQ, and you know he will commit on any flop, then the play is fine. Otherwise, I don't think it's good at all. Just to note, I don't think the original responders were wrong in saying your play was bad, given that in your original post you said you were fairly sure (and not certain) he had QQ. |
#10
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Re: AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read
alright if you want to justify getting all your money in as an underdo at every spot be my guest. your play was very bad, you arent gonna fold when flop comes a-q-4, its just a really bad play.
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