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#1
03-04-2005, 05:28 AM
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AA heads-up, nightmare flop
My first post; please forgive any infelicities.
$1-2 B&M game. Hero is UTG+1 holding A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I raise to $10, my standard preflop open-raise from early position. A player in middle position raises to $40. Folded to me, I reraise to $140. Villain calls. Villain is a very solid/tight player. What's more, he knows I don't make this reraise without a huge hand. I can confidently put him on Jacks or better given his raise and call. He would muck tens or AK here. Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Here's my question: Does anyone find a bet here? I'm out of position and by my reckoning the odds are 2/3 that my opponent just flopped a set. If he has Kings or Queens, I'm betting his hand for him, and he's going to smooth-call and set me all-in on the turn or river. If he has Jacks, he folds to any sizable bet. I don't like the idea of giving him two free chances to hit, but leading out just seems suicidal to me. In the actual hand, it was checked down the whole way and he mucked Jacks when I showed down. I don't believe for a moment that I could have milked so much as one more chip from this player, but does anyone want to argue that I should have bet the flop or turn to protect my hand? I'm not generally a passive player, so it felt unnatural to just keep checking; at the same time, discretion is sometimes the better part of valor, and my reasoning was that if he did in fact have Jacks the board would look just as scary to him as it did to me (since I could easily be slowplaying a set, letting him hit his best/worst card), so a bluff seemed unlikely. Thoughts? 
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#5
03-04-2005, 06:57 AM
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Re: AA heads-up, nightmare flop
If this guy can't lay down jacks with that preflop action, then he's just another fish that fell in love with two cards that look alike. It couldn't be more obvious if you hung a sign around your neck that said "I HAVE ACES."
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#6
03-04-2005, 07:03 AM
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Re: AA heads-up, nightmare flop
If you think he'll call 1/4 his stack away to hit a set, why don't you just push? you clearly define your hand here so he's getting away on any undercard flop most likely: just charge him the max and you have no problem.
As it is, it would depend on opponent and your image, etc. This is about as bad a board as you can get, so i could imagine betting and folding to a raise. However, its plausible you could fold to AK depending on the looseness/craziness of the table. Checking is okay here.. but not preferred as any player will try to steal from you. Good thing about checking is you can get JJ, AK, AQ to steal from you here - but you better be able to read their bets. If they have KK here they're likely to make small milking bets - do you call those and put them on AK? What if they push? Checking requires that you understand their bets fairly well to know how to act. Anyway, default play is to bet half pot and fold to raise.
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#7
03-04-2005, 07:14 AM
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Re: AA heads-up, nightmare flop
[ QUOTE ]
If you think he'll call 1/4 his stack away to hit a set, why don't you just push? [/ QUOTE ] this makes no sense at all. if he pushes, he is only getting called by KK or QQ.
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#8
03-04-2005, 08:08 AM
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Re: AA heads-up, nightmare flop
[ QUOTE ]
If you think he'll call 1/4 his stack away to hit a set, why don't you just push? [/ QUOTE ] It's not clear to me whether you mean pre- or post-flop. If the latter, pushing is insane since he probably flopped a set. (I was fortunate that he happened to have the one big pair that didn't hit the board.) If the former, I fully expected him to fold to my $100 reraise (I don't get cute with rockets as a rule; big neon sign is fine by me), but I'm happy to get a call from KK or QQ. I just don't want to see both of them hit the flop. One or the other and I'll take my chances. [ QUOTE ] Checking is okay here.. but not preferred as any player will try to steal from you. [/ QUOTE ] That's pretty risky. I make the same reraise with KK, which I would also check to him with that flop. Even if he's narrowed me down to AA or KK, 50% chance he's bluffing into the nuts. That takes some balls. And even if he correctly puts me on AA, can he realistically expect me to lay it down? It just seems like a bad spot to bluff. But maybe in a perverse way that makes it a good spot to bluff -- the old well-there's-no-plausible-draw-so-I-must-be-beat ploy. [ QUOTE ] Good thing about checking is you can get JJ, AK, AQ to steal from you here - but you better be able to read their bets. [/ QUOTE ] If I thought there was any chance he had AK and/or AQ, I would have pushed on the flop. I didn't. He's not loose enough to call a $100 reraise without a pair. Or even a pair smaller than JJ. But he does have trouble getting away from the big pairs, even when he knows he's probably beat.
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#9
03-04-2005, 08:10 AM
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Re: AA heads-up, nightmare flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you think he'll call 1/4 his stack away to hit a set, why don't you just push? [/ QUOTE ] this makes no sense at all. if he pushes, he is only getting called by KK or QQ. [/ QUOTE ] when i said this, i was also thinking you meant after the flop. if you didnt, just ignore me
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#10
03-04-2005, 10:29 AM
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Re: AA heads-up, nightmare flop
[ QUOTE ]
He's not loose enough to call a $100 reraise without a pair. Or even a pair smaller than JJ. But he does have trouble getting away from the big pairs, even when he knows he's probably beat. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, in your original post you said that you didn't think you'd be able to get any more money out of him with that flop if he didn't have KK or QQ. But now you are saying he has trouble getting away from big pairs even if he knows he's beat. If you don't want to bet that flop, and you said you wound up checking it down, I would have thrown out a value bet on the river. Probably half the pot. If he folds you don't lose anything and if he calls because he couldn't get off the jacks then you made more money. I'm not trying to say what the right move is one way or the other, just using your own reads to suggest a way to make a bit more on the hand.
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