QQ hand--scary river card???

stillbr · #1 03-03-2005, 03:47 AM

no reads. comments on the river please

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB folds, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (9 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 9 BB

me454555 · #2 03-03-2005, 04:00 AM

Whats w/this check the river bs? the J pairing is a great card for you. It makes it less likely that he has a J and might be more inclined to call you if he's got middle pair b/c he may think you don't have a J.

stillbr · #3 03-03-2005, 04:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Whats w/this check the river bs? the J pairing is a great card for you. It makes it less likely that he has a J and might be more inclined to call you if he's got middle pair b/c he may think you don't have a J.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is very likely to see a J here normally. My thinking was I would rather check and call a stupid bluff, then call a raise. With me being the raiser preflop, I wouldnt expect to get raised with anything less than top pair on the flop. Is my thinking way off here?

SGS · #4 03-03-2005, 04:11 AM

Were you planning to fold or call a bet? If you were planning to call a bet, bet it yourself and fold to a raise. Checking and calling doesn't make since in this position unless you think he will bluff if checked to and fold if bet into. Given the lack of draws present I would tend to bet this one and hope he calls.

SGS

Kailia Marie · #5 03-03-2005, 04:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Whats w/this check the river bs? the J pairing is a great card for you. It makes it less likely that he has a J and might be more inclined to call you if he's got middle pair b/c he may think you don't have a J.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi me454555,

While mathematically this may be true in terms of pure probabilities, that line of thinking is wrong because it does not account for the action in the hand. For example, suppose you play a hand where you hold KK and the board comes out J high and you bet and it's raised and re-raised behind you. The next card is a J. Is it more or less likely that someone has a J? The answer should be (despite going against Bayes Thereom) neither because sometimes the action in the hand dictates the probabilities not the actual percentages.

Now I'm not saying whether or not checking or betting this river is correct or not. In fact I would have bet myself and folded to a raise. I just wanted you to know why that thinking can sometimes be wrong.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Kailia

Argus · #6 03-03-2005, 04:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Whats w/this check the river bs? the J pairing is a great card for you. It makes it less likely that he has a J and might be more inclined to call you if he's got middle pair b/c he may think you don't have a J.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not entirely, though many players will push hard with any two headsup (you could have Ax that missed, or an underpair like TT), or even with nothing

I think it is very likely to see a J here normally. My thinking was I would rather check and call a stupid bluff, then call a raise. With me being the raiser preflop, I wouldnt expect to get raised with anything less than top pair on the flop. Is my thinking way off here?

[/ QUOTE ]
Not really, but some players will try to push you off AK or another miss - or even an underpair - with flop aggression. Calling down is a sign of something, and most likely a J but possibly any other pair.

I like the river check because it gives your opponent a chance to bluff the river, and hands you beat are unlikely to call after that jack falls. It also saves you getting raised by the jack. I thought this check was a standard get the most while ahead, lose the least while behind line.

Chris Daddy Cool · #7 03-03-2005, 05:22 AM

good post.
a lot of times actions speak more than probabilities. i've been learning this the tough way in my forray into NL lately. however, i dont' think it really matters much in this case because i still think hero has a value bet here.

Nick C · #8 03-03-2005, 05:23 AM

I check-call in spots like this sometimes. I feel timid when I'm doing it, but I think a case can be made for check-calling, especially against an unknown:

(1) A number of Party 2/4 players do love to bluff and bluff-raise boards that pair on the river. And a raise can be a bluff-raise less than (in this pot) 1 in 12 times and still cut into the expectation of the bet-fold line.

(2) If checked to, your opponent may go ahead and bet his 88 or A6 anyway, after your show of weakness, if that's what he has.

(3) There is also some chance the second jack will scare him and prompt him to fold his A6.

Anyway, against a passive player, I think a bet-fold line would be best, on this river. But against an unknown, I don't think it's so clear what the best line is. (Against some very aggressive players who bluff-raise too much, it could be best to bet-call. And against a very passive player, check-folding could even be correct.)

WillMagic · #9 03-03-2005, 08:05 AM

Originally I thought this was well played, but I'm coming around to the river bet/fold to raise. Just keep in mind that if you do end up folding to a river raise, you shouldn't try this play again for a while.

Will

masonx · #10 03-03-2005, 08:33 AM

yeah i think i like bet/folding to raise on the river as Will said. You are most likely up against a bluff but i think you will get called enough by a mid pocket pair to make it worth a bet.

I like it alot better than check/calling. (i suppose thats what your planning to do)

Edit - Also, you are not incorrect in how you played it and i am playing it the same frequently.