Raising the river when you think you cant be reraised.

[Oblivious]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

MP3 is open raising a lot of pots in late position. Ive been reraising him with hands like A8, and cold calling with KJ. Weve been pretty aggressive with eachother so far.

Preflop: Oblivious is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Oblivious 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Oblivious calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Oblivious bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Oblivious bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP3 folds, Oblivious calls.

Initially I was cautious of UTG having a flush draw. Now Im concerned he has JT.

River: (14.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Oblivious calls.

I think I could have raised this river. If UTG has two pair or a lower set, I'll make an extra bet. If he does indeed have JT, hopefully he finds it tough to raise me when the last spade hits (I know this isnt the case against good players). If he has a flush, Im screwed, but Im convinced enough by his turn play that he doesnt.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

[Argus]

[ QUOTE ]
Initially I was cautious of UTG having a flush draw. Now Im concerned he has JT.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're sure enough of this to smooth call then you should probably just fold. Since you aren't I think KQ or AK/Q is more likely than JT here. As such I can't see any reason not to 3-bet this turn.

His turn play is incongruent with the flush, and you have the ace of spades which means the Ax[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he might play the same way is impossible. For this reason I raise the river and call a 3-bet.