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#1
02-28-2005, 08:58 PM
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What were Hellmuth\'s Outs?
I am sure this already been discussed, but I did a search for "+Duke +Hellmuth" and could not find anything.
Anyway, I just finished watching the 2004 WSOP "Tournament of Champions" and noticed something that perplexed me. On one of the last hands, Annie Duke had K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and Phil Hellmuth had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. After the turn, the board was K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The ESPN odds calculator had Hellmuth with a 3% chance to win the hand. Yet, I did not see any outs for Hellmuth to win, or even split the pot for that matter. Can someone please clear up my confusion? Thanks. 
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#3
02-28-2005, 09:03 PM
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Re: What were Hellmuth\'s Outs?
Doh! Thanks, I thought Annie would have him outkicked if that happened, but I guess not.
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#5
02-28-2005, 10:46 PM
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Re: What were Hellmuth\'s Outs?
Yeah, but I thought the 3% was the percentage he'd win, not the percentage that he'd not lose the hand. I suppose I am mistaken though, because I don't see any outs that would give Phil the win here.
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#6
02-28-2005, 10:56 PM
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Re: What were Hellmuth\'s Outs?
One of the things to also keep in mind is that oftentimes the odds they show are NOT correct -- I won't pick on particular shows, but there are certain programs that make more errors than others when it comes to the math of a situation....
Barron Vangor Toth www.BarronVangorToth.com
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#7
02-28-2005, 11:02 PM
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Re: What were Hellmuth\'s Outs?
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but I thought the 3% was the percentage he'd win, not the percentage that he'd not lose the hand. I suppose I am mistaken though, because I don't see any outs that would give Phil the win here. [/ QUOTE ] The 3% is pot equity, not "times he wins" or "times he doesn't lose" There's a 6% chance a jack falls, winning him half the pot, hence 3%
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#9
03-01-2005, 12:49 AM
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Re: What were Hellmuth\'s Outs?
[ QUOTE ]
I am sure this already been discussed, but I did a search for "+Duke +Hellmuth" and could not find anything. Anyway, I just finished watching the 2004 WSOP "Tournament of Champions" and noticed something that perplexed me. On one of the last hands, Annie Duke had K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and Phil Hellmuth had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. After the turn, the board was K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The ESPN odds calculator had Hellmuth with a 3% chance to win the hand. Yet, I did not see any outs for Hellmuth to win, or even split the pot for that matter. Can someone please clear up my confusion? Thanks. [/ QUOTE ] They would split the pot with a J on the river.
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#10
03-01-2005, 01:10 AM
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Re: What were Hellmuth\'s Outs?
[ QUOTE ]
Do they account for the other cards that were mucked, because they know what they are? [/ QUOTE ] I believe they do. When they show the hole cards of players who eventually mucked, they factor that into the calculation.
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