The difference between success and failure

[Irieguy]

Because of my recent foray into backing and coaching, I am now exposed to a large number of results from a heterogeneous group of players at multiple limits. I watch a lot of hand histories, and I look at a lot of spreadsheets. I get at least 5, and often more than a dozen bad beat/bad run PMs or emails every day.

This experience and exposure has taught me a great deal about the difference between winners and losers. I am becomming a much better player as a result of it. I'm going to share something that I have learned which I feel may be the single most important key to playing SNGs for a living.

The following is not at all meant to be a criticism of anyone who has sent me a rant about running badly. I have certainly done my share of complaining in the past. This is just an explanation of something I have learned. I hope it will help you all, because it has helped me.

Everybody will eventually run worse than they thought was possible. The difference between a winner and a loser is that the latter thinks they do not deserve it.

That which we shall not speak of has happened to me. It's going to happen to you, too, if you play long enough. If you believe that such a bad run exists only in the most improbable of statistical wastelands, you will feel particularly unlucky while it's happening to you. This will make you feel like you don't deserve what's happening.

"Why is this happening to me? Why is it lasting so long? How can they play so poorly while I play so well as they continually outdraw me? This doesn't make sense. It's not fair."

This type of internal dialogue is poisonous. It causes players who have enough skill to beat the game to quit the game instead. The only difference between a loser and a quitter is that at least a loser is still in the action.

All of the players that I back and coach have the requisite skill to beat SNGs for enough money to make a living. 90% of them are currently winning. But I predict that less than 20% of them will be consistently playing and consistently winning one year from right now.

I look at how the names have changed on this forum over the years. I've been on the 2+2 forum for around 5 years (under a different name), and Fossilman was the only poster I can remember who stayed around for more than 2 years. (I'm sure there are a few more, but not many.) Obviously, he didn't leave because he quit or got loser... but it's also quite obvious why he's the exception.

I am beginning to realize that most people don't have the psychological fortitude or spiritual perspective to manage the vicissitudes of this game. I also believe that of the very small number of professional poker players who have been successful for more than a few years, most of them are actually quite lucky. I believe that there are many pros who will fail once they begin to experience average luck.

Now for the good news.

I think you can learn how to avoid this trap of psychological betrayal. I think I'm beginning to learn it myself. It involves turning your noise filter all the way up. There are only two signals emitted from the poker universe:

1. The universe will unfold as it should
2. If you play the right way, and your opponents do not; you will win.

Everything else is noise, and to make too much of anything that doesn't expressly involve the two above facts is to pave the road to failure.

Poker has nothing to do with good luck or bad luck, fairness or unfairness; and there is no such thing as the unbelievable.

It is what it is, fellow warriors. Learn which side you want to be on, and be there as often as possible. Assess your position in this regard as frequently and precisely as possible... but stand firm and calm. Resolve is rewarded. Chafe is the mark of a loser.

Irieguy

[bones]

Thank you.

[eastbay]

Irieguy,

I have been running bad for 2 1/2 years now but you have given me the courage to carry on from my $374,356 loss. I know that this is just a streak, and that statistics are on my side and will return what is rightfully mine.

Sometimes I begin to lose hope that the variance will smooth out and return me my rightful earnings. But I fear no more. Six more credit cards will bridge the gap, and then it will all be gravy.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that for many players, consistent losing is a sign of bad play, not "that which we will not speak of."

I know you know the difference; I also know many beginning to intermediate players do not, and may be tempted to ascribe their losses to "that which we do not speak of" rather than the truth which is that they're playing like crap.

Just a note of temperment and fair warning to the casual reader.

Or maybe this is just a brilliant guerilla campaign for fish retainment and restocking. Who knows. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

eastbay

[adanthar]

I'll say this much: "That we shall not speak of" goes away really quickly when you take a couple of days off, switch sites, play some limit, go back to the roots of your game and immediately destroy some SNG's and win a fair sized MTT. Next time I run that bad, I'll probably do it again [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I think the thing I'm third or fourth proudest of in my poker career has been that I've never made a bad beat thread.

[EliteNinja]

That post rocked!

You should submit it as an article.

It's just like the philosophy taught in Miyamoto Musashi's book 'The Book of Five Rings' (1645). In this scripture, he wrote that to become invincible, one must put oneself outside the the battle. And one must execute what needs to be done to become victorious without thinking of the consequences. When you're 'inside' the battle, you will start to think about yourself. When you think about your own life when you are fighting, you may start to have fear which will cripple your ability to execute the right strategy. It will make you hesitate.

Miyamoto was a famous swordsman who lived in Japan from 1584-1645.

Very pertinent in poker.
1. Put yourself outside, looking in.
2. Do what you need to do to win without thinking about your results.

[Gramps]

I've only been playing poker seriously for 18 months, but I've come to the opinion over that time that there's a "personality characteristic" that is as essential to long-term success as one's knowledge of the game - ones ability to handle adversity coupled with a sort of "twisted enjoyment" on some level of the challenges that adversity presents and overcoming those challenges (doesn't mean part of you doesn't want to scream/throw things, just that part of you says "bring it on, I'll kick this thing in the arse eventually" and you proceed to gather your wits and continue on in a rational fashion).

Not saying the above is necessarily a good or bad personality characteristic to have in general, just that it seems to be a must for succeeding (and wanting to continue grinding it out) long term in poker, given how detached good results can be from good process in the short and even mid-run.

Cliff notes = sh-t happens, stop whining and just deal with it. (Of course, I still have to remind myself of this a couple of times a month, and it's never very comforting emotionally...)

[1C5]

Great post, makes total sense to me. I am not sure but I think me being an athlete somehow helps the mental side in poker as sometimes I would do everything to the best of my ability and still lose sometimes. Reminds me of a tennis player who lost 21 straight first round matches. He got the nickname "Blackjack". Probably many others would have retired at his age yet he played through it and is now one of the top players in the world again.

[Mr_J]

The difference (apart from having or not having a longterm edge or sound management) is how they deal with the hard times. Anyone can deal with the positive side of variance, but it takes real determination and dicipline to be able to battle through everything variance has to throw at you. Most people just don't have the traits to handle it.

[The once and future king]

Also I would also like to add one thing.

Months and years of consistent winning may make you over confident. At some point a streak more brutal than you can imagine will occur.

MAKE SURE YOUR BR IS PREPARED FOR THIS INEVITABLE OCCURANCE

This practical measure will also help the poker warrior survive the battlefield of variance.

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]

Everybody will eventually run worse than they thought was possible. The difference between a winner and a loser is that the latter thinks they do not deserve it.


Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post. I'm struggling with this right now. My biggest success is not self-destructing when all I could think about was how unfair the game was and how awful the other players were. But I'm still down 1/3 of my initial bankroll. In looking back at some of my SnGs (self-evaluation isn't easy), I'm surprised at the impatience I showed and bad decisions I've made. I still make them, but I'm trying to slow down.

Poker is a tough game. As a consistent winning chess player, it's difficult to accept the fact that the best player doesn't always win. In that context, it's not always easy to determine what the best play was or is.

I know there *is* a best play from a theoretical point-of-view, but the hardest aspect of poker is that it doesn't always pay off.

We'll see if I'm here six months from now. Regardless, thanks for the post, Irieguy.


Joe