What's an average downswing if the player is not making any mistakes?

[ChoicestHops]

Im currently trying to build up a bankroll at .50/1. I dropped $200 into Paradise to get the $50 deposit bonus. I know I should have 300bb for the .05/1, but Im doing fine simply clearing the bouns with a 200bb bankroll.

Ironically enough, the games at Paradise are tight with a flop percentage at my tables about 28%. Last night I had a noticeable downswing, and it was only in a period of about 100 hands and two hours. I had assholes re-raise my re-raise with A2o when I have QQ. They flop the A and of course win the pot. I think over a period of 100 hands, I saw the flop 40% of the time, which is very high, but I was getting excellent pockets and not cold-calling raises, and etc. I ended up losing about 40bb in one session, and I honestly don't think I made many mistakes. Fish simply caught their cards, and I couldn't catch mine. My AKs couldnt catch an A,K, or the suited cards, etc.

Im getting somewhat irritated because after I clear this bonus, Im only going to be up $50 or so, unless of course I get another downswing.

Over a period of 5,000 hands or sowhat's a normal downswing without any major or consistent mistakes?

[bottomset]

great players can have 10k stretches breakeven or worse, be happy with anything +

40bb isn't big, is the +50 w/o the bonus factored in? in which case be happy

[ChoicestHops]

Thanks. It's just frustrating sitting at a table for 4 hours and coming out 3BB. Then in 2 hours, go on a downswing where you have excellent pockets and lose 40BB.

I can now see why it's hard for anyone to be a winner in this game, it takes much patience!

And no, the +50 is with the bonus figured in. In the past 700 hands or so, my +BB is about 25, but my -BB is about 42.

I wish I could have had all my hands pushed in Poker Tracker, however, I didn't realize they would not send me a hand history over 100 hands; so my first 300 hands on Paradise are not recorded.

[Russ McGinley]

Yesterday I sat for 4 hours at a live game and finished -40BB. I played a few hands badly that probably cost me a total of 10BB. Had AA cracked by J5, QQ by 64, and AK by K9 on a K-x-x flop. I keep telling myself that I want to see people show hands like J5 because they are just at the mercy of the cards, and tomorrow they won't catch those 2-outers on the river.

[DeadManJay]

I'm not sure if you guys are dropping this much multi-tabling or playing singles, but if you are losing in a single sitting at one table I've found that it's usually a good idea to go ahead and drop the table around -30BB, whether you'll admit it or not, once you start losing that much it's almost impossible to play your best game. I read this piece of advice when I first started playing and I believe that it's saved me a decent amount of money.

[KingOtter]

Even if someone told you what the 'average' downswing is, it wouldn't mean anything to your situation. It wouldn't tell you how longer you could expect it to last, since yours may just be balancing out a much smaller downswing, and could actually last twice the average downswing!

THEN how frustrated would you be, knowing that your downswing was twice the usual one? Probably more than now!

Average and expectations are goofy things.

I recently posted a thread about my troubles at Party. I started out at Party with a downswing of about 60-70BB. Worked my way up to 0, then hit another one for 100+BB (I think absolute low was about -108BB).

I know I'm not a perfect player, and do spew chips every once in a while, but honestly considered myself a better player than that (don't we all).

Once I made the decision 'damn the winrate' and started forgetting about how much I was losing or winning I started playing better poker, I think.

KO

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if you guys are dropping this much multi-tabling or playing singles, but if you are losing in a single sitting at one table I've found that it's usually a good idea to go ahead and drop the table around -30BB, whether you'll admit it or not, once you start losing that much it's almost impossible to play your best game. I read this piece of advice when I first started playing and I believe that it's saved me a decent amount of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. If the game is good you stay. And some players play their best when they are down, while some play their worst when they are up.

[NigelTufnel]

Using Homer's ultra-cool spreadsheet, I did 10,000 iterations of 5,000 hands for a "good" player (2BB per 100 hands with a SD of 16 per 100 hands).

They show that he will, of course, average 2BB/100. Looking at the (normal) distribution shows (for .50/1 game):

Percentile- BB/100- BB won/lost
100- 10.377- 518.85
0.995- 7.748- 387.4
0.975- 6.404- 320.2
0.9- 4.948- 247.4
0.75- 3.588- 179.4
0.5- 2.055- 102.75
0.25- 0.518- 25.9
0.1- (-0.9)- (-45)
0.025- (-2.499)- (-124.95)
0.005- (-3.936)- (-196.8)
0- (-7.478)- (-373.9)


So in other words, 75% of the time he'll win $179.40 or more, 2.5% of the time he'll lose $124.95 or more, etc.

This doesn't really comprehend swings that can take place within these 5,000 hand periods, but I hope it's helpful.

Wow, these message boards are not made for pasting spreadsheets into, are they?

[martinimagic]

I am having similar issues with going up and then back. 1 step forward and 2 steps back. I work like heck to get to 0 and fall back. I noticed one of the posts talks about the A flopping and you lose. The only thing keeping me sane at this point is the fact that A huggers are going to lose big over time. Like the better players here say keep aggressive and you will really gouge them when they miss the A.

I play the table even if I am way behind on it.. but it depends on the game. I have on several occasions fallen way behind and then end up way ahead due to the weak table. At this point I think it's smart to leave a table full of A huggers since they will nibble you to death.

[DeadManJay]

Since I've read this post I'm down 50BB 4 tabling .50/1...