Do You Like This Bluff?

[Utah]

5/10 ps

I am UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villian is UTG+1
I read the villian as weak, tight, and passive. I have only been at the table for about 20 hands. But I stole his blinds a couple of times. On a third obvious steal try he only called me on the button with 9,9 and then checked down a high card flop, never once taking a stab at the pot after 3 checks from me.

Stacks both over $1K

Flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
pot is $35

Blind checks. I check. villian bets $15. Blind folds. I come over the top for $60. He calls

Turn is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
pot is $155

I bet $125 and he calls. Now I know I am behind.

River is the 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] putting the fourth spade on the board.
pot is $405

I have no chance to win by checking. I fire pot, $405, and he reraises me. I fold.

Can you make that bluff here and what do you put him on. I put him on a set, a low flush, or Q,A with possibly the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I am 90% sure he will lay down without the A.

[Voltron87]

If he calls the 125 on a three flush board I don't see him folding to another bet on the river with a spade. Maybe, maybe a paired board. I don't really like it, the board gets more and more favorable to drawing hands yet you keep betting more and more. If he is such a passive player I would not have bet 125 on the turn. You are no longer protecting your hand at this point, he is either there or not drawing. After he calls the 125 you should be done with it, you shouldnt have even bet it in the first place.

As for the "I can't win by checking", that logic is going to lose you money.

[smartalecc5]

Good voltron. What could he call with on the turn? When you do your pot odds calculation, you assume that you are drawing to the best hand. Would he risk that much on a low flush??

[Popinjay]

That check-raise on the flop is ugly imo. You're turning an unraised pot into a big pot out of position.

[Usagi_yo]

I feel like you're trying too hard to win a small pot that got big because you were trying to hard.

[Utah]

I was playing the specific player. I felt I had a perfect read on him and I felt I could push him off. I also felt a flop lead bet would net me zero.

I still think that if he didnt have the Ace then he would have folded immediately on the river and I would have felt like a genius.

However, I dont think I played it right but it is hard for me not to trust my read and play accordingly.

[radioheadfan]

I don't dislike the way this was played. Villian would have a hard time calling this river without the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. However, save yourself some money on the bluff. Bet around $200-250 - if he'll call $250 then he'll call $400. Also, $200-250 looks more like a value bet on your supposed nut flush.

If you believe your opponent had less than the nuts on the river it's not a bad line.

[greywolf]

true, but he shoudlnt have bet the turn so it doenst matter .

[Utah]

The turn is where I still have some confusion.

What hand can I put him on? All we know is that he has a big piece of the flop, but we dont know what.

He has a set, A,Qo, Ac,Q, or Q,K. I thought the set was the least likely of those options and I would think that he would lay down to the other three hands given how timid he was.

I wonder if it would have been smarter to make a big overbet on the turn because it is likely he will even laydown the set.

Sitting here thinking as I type this, my biggest mistake was maybe the river. I can rule out the set on the turn because he didnt reraise me and even this player doesnt give me the free shot of hitting a flush. A,Q and K,Q nonsuited would likely fold the turn from this guy. There is no chance he had a smaller flush because he would have dropped on the flop and he would have pushed the turn in case I was holding a big club. That leaves only one hand he had a high probability of holding

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Qx

This hand is reasonable on all streets for how he played.

Just very poor playing on my part.

The only other option is that by some chance he was sick of being pushed around so he called with a A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] which would have made his turn play reasonable. Of course, this option leads to the same check/fold on the river.

[xorbie]

I would have raised this preflop and bet the pot on the flop.