#1
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Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
Blinds: $3k/$6k Antes: $1k
Pot Before any Betting: $14k Stack sizes aren't stated but Sklansky definitely has Cloutier out-chipped by about 2-1. The last time shown, Sklansky has $342k and Cloutier $165k. Since then, neither were involved in any of the televised pots so they are probably something similar. 5-Handed Sklansky is UTG holding A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Raises $20k. Pot: $34k Hellmuth, Caro, Brunson fold Cloutier in BB holds A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Raises $74k Pot: $108k Sklansky has $60k to call. Thinks and folds. I don't remember ever seeing anyone muck AK on the WPT in any circumstance so this hand is interesting. Clearly, since he won the event, he didn't need it. comments? |
#2
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Re: Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
senor sklansky's response: what he was thinking
i agree, i've never seen anyone pass on ak preflop in the face of aggression in a wpt event. i hated it at the time, but like it more and more as i think about it. |
#3
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Re: Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
I think it's especially daring. I mean, he had to know how much heat he was going to be taking for it in his own back yard.
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#4
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Re: Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
This situation comes up all the time in my online tourneys.
In TPFAP, in the segment on AK (p 115-119): "The best time to move in with ace-king is when moving in is betting two to five times the size of the pot." Since TJ has ~$150k left, with the pot at $94k, Sklansky could move all-in for (150k) / 94 = ~1.6x. A clarification is needed on the book I think. Is the reference in the book to only times where you are betting 2-5x the size the blinds?? or is it also for times when you have been re-raised? In this case, TJ has put ~40% of his stack in already... He looks pot-committed. If he has any pair, David will be the underdog but he is getting a little overlay to do it. Last paragraph of the segment is: "if you do choose to move in with most of your ace-kings, you are choosing to play a style that can get you broke instantly. That goes against some general precepts of tournament play. So don't do it if you know you are the best player, and your chips are many times the size of the pot." |
#5
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Re: Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
correct play there is to move all-in, end of story. sklansky discusses his reasons for not calling, but not his reasons for not moving all-in. ex ante prob that someone has AA or KK in a six-handed game (my recollection is that it was 6handed at the time) is about 5.5% if you don't hold AK,more like 3.5% if you do. connditional on TJ reraising a tight player (david), the prob that he has AA or KK is in the 5-15% range. Against KK, david is a 7 to 3 dog, against aces he's obviously bad off.
my estimates are 7% he has aces. you're in bad shape 7% he has kings. you're 30% 20% has has AK. split it up 20% has has AQ. you're 75% or so 66% he has a pair, QQ or lower. here you're a dog, but since you still have a health stack if you lose, you call on pot odds. i push here. |
#6
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Re: Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
[ QUOTE ]
correct play there is to move all-in, end of story. sklansky discusses his reasons for not calling, but not his reasons for not moving all-in. ex ante prob that someone has AA or KK in a six-handed game (my recollection is that it was 6handed at the time) is about 5.5% if you don't hold AK,more like 3.5% if you do. connditional on TJ reraising a tight player (david), the prob that he has AA or KK is in the 5-15% range. Against KK, david is a 7 to 3 dog, against aces he's obviously bad off. my estimates are 7% he has aces. you're in bad shape 7% he has kings. you're 30% 20% has has AK. split it up 20% has has AQ. you're 75% or so 66% he has a pair, QQ or lower. here you're a dog, but since you still have a health stack if you lose, you call on pot odds. i push here. [/ QUOTE ] You have failed to consider quite a few things. Number one is the chips that David would have lost if he lost the hand. It happens that TJ happened to have the one and only holding with which you wanted him to have which is AQ. Even if TJ has QQ or any pocket pair below that and pot odds warrant a call (which is correct). Pot odds do not speak to the fact that you may lose the hand and lose half your stack. There is something to be said for passing up small edges. However, keep in mind, AK does not have a small edge against any other pocket pair, it's a small dog. TJ just happened to have the one and probably only one hand that TJ would play in this manner in which David had a huge edge. BTW, just b/c we haven't seen anyone lay down AK pre-flop in any WPT event doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Remember, these shows represent an hour and a half or so or what is sometimes 6-7 hours worth of live action. |
#7
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Re: Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
He couldn't win the tournament on that hand, and let's face it, when TJ Cloutier is re-raising me and I'm David Sklansky and hold AK, there is exactly ONE hand I am ahead of. You have a mere 20k invested, so why not let it go and wait until you're certain you're ahead.
I knew the commentators would have a cow about this laydown because, like someone said, no one ever folds AK on the WPT. Notice how he got much of that 20k back with 78s on the next televised hand against the same player by making a raise. |
#8
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Re: Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's especially daring. I mean, he had to know how much heat he was going to be taking for it in his own back yard. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure he factors this in all his decisions. Its actually in the hidden chaptor of TOP |
#9
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Re: Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
I don't think Dan Harrington would have folded............
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#10
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Re: Sklanksy AK hand, let\'s discuss...
i think he just didnt want to get lectured by TJ about how AK is the walking home to houston hand
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