what would you do?...serious question about the way I played a hand.

[ojsdaman]

I posted this on the other forum, but I havent gotten an answer so I am posting it here. Sorry if that inconvienences you.
Hello all. I have a serious question about the way I played a hand at foxwoods and noone can figure it out. If you could help me I would seriously appreciate it. This hand play is one of the most tricky I have ever encountered. The advice could go for more hands when you are pretty sure you have the nuts. It was at a 4-8 table at foxwoods on Tuesday night. The table was loose prefolp, and loose on the flop, but very tight after the turn.
I was in the #2 position with (2H, 2S). UTG called, I called, #4 called, Button called, SB called, and BB checked. 6 Player saw the flop of JC, 9C, 8H, with $24 dollars in the pot.
SB bet, BB called, #1 called, I called hoping for trips ( I wasnt worried about being raised because noone was raising the entire night after the flop because everyone was slowplaying, so they would check raise on the turn. So I called, and everyone else called and there was $48 dollars in the pot.
6 players see the turn of 9H. Everyone checked but I was pretty sure someone had a 9 and was slowplaying. Most likely it was one of the blinds because both had been check-raising on the turn all night.
The river was the 2C, giving me a full house. So I had (2H,2S) and the board was (Jc, 9c, 8h, 9h, 2c). I was 98 % sure I had the best hand, with the only chance being someone with J,9. I was also close to 100 % sure someone had made the flush, and everyone at the table had been flush hunting all night.
Ok heres my question, and where it all gets tricky. SB thought about betting but checked, BB checked, #1 quickly bet. Because it was only 4/8 i wanted to hopefully get a bunch of bets in. So #1 bet, and it was up to me to call or raise, with 4 people still left to play behind me.
Based on my reads I felt that:
IF I RAISE, heres what could happen
1) anyone with a 9 will probably fold as I alerted them to a possible straight or flush 2) anyone with the straight will just call for fear of the flush 3) anyone with the nutflush (or maybe K flush) will reraise and I will get the chance to make it 4 bets, with the #1 player calling because he would be trapped in a pot with good pot odds.
IF I CALL, heres what could happen with 4 players still left to act.
1) anyone with a J would most likely call 2) anyone with a 9, a flush, or a straight might raise because they are still in the mindset of slowplaying and therefore I could reraise with 1,2 or 3 players being trapped in the pot with them having already called the $8 dollar bet from the #1 position, so they would call any raises most likely.
So I either raise and hope someone made the nut flush and reraise me, or I call and hope someome raises up the pot allowing me to re-raise.
I know most of the time you should raise in my situation with the full house.
I CALLED FOR THESE REASONS. I felt that if I raised then everyone would fold and the #1 would just call unless he had the nut flush in which he would reraise me. If he calls my raise then I only gain $16 dollars on the river. If he reraises me, then I would gain $ 32 because I would then reraise. I still felt that the #1 position would only call me, so I thought I would only gain $16. I FELT that i called, all it would take it one other person behind me to call to equal the EV that I would gain from raising and having the #1 just call me. If I call and more then one person calls, then I would make more than the $16 dollars I would get from raising. If I ONLY called I felt that someone might foolishly raise the pot up with a 9, or a straight, or a low flush. If that happend that everyone would be trapped and I would reraise and gain much more from it. I realized that if I call I might be lucky enough to get this situation or one just like it. --- #1 bet, I call, #4 call, button raises, SB folds, BB folds, #1 calls, I re-raise, #4 calls, button calls and #1 calls. If that happens then I would take down a pot of $144 or more. That is a ton more than if I raised and taking down a pot of $80 when the #1 just calls me.
Please help me out with this insane situation. It had been driving me crazy for the past few days, and I cannot figure out the correct play here. Noone I ask gives me a detailed answer that would explain this. Thankyou so much for your time in reading this long post, but I had to explain every detail to get a correct answer. I know this type of hand happens often enough that I need to know the correct play for the future.
Thanks again,
Evan

[Yobz]

fold the flop.

[jtr]

Consider folding preflop (although I get the feeling the game may be loose enough to justify your call here), fold on the flop, and I hope to god you would have folded on the turn if a bet had come. Playing the way you are, you're one of the reasons people here like going to Foxwoods.

Having said that, your move of going for extra callers and hopefully a raise allowing you to reraise on the end seems fine. If there's a reasonable chance of someone putting in that raise then great -- only you can tell us how aggressive these people have been on scary river boards. If on the other hand they're passive throughout most hands, then get your raise in now while you can. I am honestly not sure why you're so choked up over this hand.

And your post really belongs in the small stakes limit forum.

[jack spade23]

Preflop fold, flop fold, turn fold. You're out of position the entire hand, however, once you hit that river i think it was correct to raise. If someone seems really confident that he has the hand, there is the possibility that he could have JJ or 88 or J9 or for some reason 92. So if he wants to reraise and you get callers it i would just call and not cap.

[onegymrat]

Hi Evan,

Yes, that was very detailed, thank you. Here's my thoughts:

PREFLOP: You really should consider folding. The only reason I would recommend limping is under the most perfect conditions where you are getting paid off to the max and the game is extremely loose-passive. Fold it. You're out of position and there are just too many people to act behind you. Fold it.

FLOP: Definitely fold it. Not only do you NOT have odds to continue, even if you hit your deuce on the turn, the river can kill you just as much, with a board as dangerous as that.

TURN: Uh, freebie.

RIVER: Raise. You have valid reasons, yes, but this is a better one: Anyone with a straight, flush, or even top pair will pay you off. Don't worry about it.

Good luck.

[NLSoldier]

I don't your preflop limp as much as the rest of the responses so far. In a loose game after utg has already limped I think you have a good chance of setting off a limp fest by limping here.

The flop is a clear fold.

On the river it all depends on your reads on the other players. If you look left and see people who are still very interested in the hand then I think calling in hopes of overcalls or a raise behind you is a fine play.

[Wayfare]

You have to fold the flop, and it's not close. Go for overcalls on the river.\

Why: You have two outs which are almost certainly outs that improve you to the best hand. That's not close enough to enough outs to take a card off, even for one small bet.

Read SSHE, there is an example of exactly this situation.

[talcum]

the first thing that strikes me outside of the flop call is that if someone has a nine on the turn they are not in their right mind if they slowplay with that board. I think going for overcalls on the river is OK because the two probably only helps you and someone drawing to a flush, in which case the flush can raise you.

[Stork]

Preflop limp is fine. Flop is a fold. Turn is ok. River- I prefer to raise here. No straight or trips is folding for two bets and a flush may reraise you. If you get reraised, just call as someone could have a bigger boat.

[ojsdaman]

I understand that under normal conditions fold. But the reason I didnt is because the game was insanely loose with almost no preflop raises. I was fairly confident I would see the flop for 4. Also there was no flop raising going on. I am not sure what people were on, but noone was raising until the turn. After the river, I am not sure why, but I was very very sure I had the best hand. I wonder if the answer would be the same even if I held the nuts. Does that change my decision?