Correct odds to draw?

Benal · #1 02-21-2005, 08:59 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 (t2305)
Hero (t1635)
MP1 (t2925)
MP2 (t965)
MP3 (t335)
CO (t945)
Button (t880)
SB (t625)
BB (t845)
UTG (t965)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t20, Hero raises to t80, 1 fold, MP2 calls t80, 3 folds, SB calls t70, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls t60.

Flop: (t340) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets t30, Hero raises to t225, MP2 raises to t420, SB folds, UTG+1 calls t390, Hero calls t195.

Turn: (t1600) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets t465 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t465, Hero ??

Pulplife · #2 02-21-2005, 09:25 PM

Simply put, YES!

You have 9 outs to the nut flush, 2 outs to two pair (not that strong here), and 2 outs to three of a kind (also not to strong here).

I only counted two outs to the two pair do to the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] making someone the diamond flush. Also, the three of a kind would be weak due to the high chance of someone hitting their full.

So given that, you have approx. 11 outs (this could be argued). If you call it 11 outs, you're getting over 3:1 odds to make your draw. You are getting over 5:1 pot odds.

It's not even close, you are getting great odds to call. The only question is whether to call or push!

Pulp [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

EDIT: This only addresses the odds question. It does not concider that it is early in the tournament and that you could wait for a better spot to make a move. It would help to know what level you are playing (buy-in). This may define what kind of players you are dealing with. It smells like a low buy-in with all that action so early. But then I noticed your number of posts and had to wonder.

Cland · #3 02-21-2005, 09:25 PM

I would probly let this go, I wouldn't think my 10s were good, Really I'm curious about what UTG has.

I would have a hard time of putting it down, but I'm in a tourny and I'm trying to win the tournament I'd let it go.

On the other side, when the river comes you'll have total control on it, I think UTG is workin with suited connector diamonds, so he's waiting for that last diamond to fall.

If it doesn't come bet small enough that he'll call and watch your tens make you some profit, even if you lose to the all-in.

I am talking about this because I could see myself making this call in a sidegame.

Benal · #4 02-22-2005, 02:43 PM

I did call, and a beautiful [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] rivered. It was then clear sailing to the final table, to finish 3/950.

I figured I had the odds to draw, even though I didn't know for sure. I really need to work on that aspect of my game.

pocketjacks · #5 02-22-2005, 03:09 PM

To figure the odds, you might want to do it easier you could look at it using percentages, like the previous poster said you had around 11 outs. out of 46. get that to a rough percentage of low 20's. This means as long as you don't have to put more than 25% of the total pot in to make this call it is a call. You only had to put about 20% or less in to make the call. Nice call good job. Can you tell us what the other two players had?

Benal · #6 02-22-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell us what the other two players had?

[/ QUOTE ]

River was 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

MP2 had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for top pair.

UTG+1 had 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a busted diamond draw, rivered gutshot straight. He pushed and I obviously called.

curtains · #7 02-22-2005, 04:44 PM

btw I hate how this hand was played before the turn. Way too aggressive+loose.