Bad play or bad luck? Three hand analysis within 8 hands of each other

cigarzfan · #1 02-20-2005, 01:11 PM

Hand 1:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO caps, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (32 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (22 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (27 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 31 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has Kc Jc (one pair, jacks).
Hero has Ah Ac (one pair, aces).
UTG has 8h Jh (one pair, jacks).
MP1 has 5d 5s (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: MP1 wins 31 BB. 

Five hands later... (Hand Two)

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB folds.

River: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qs Kh (one pair, kings).
CO has Ac Qc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: CO wins 10 BB. 

Three hands later... (Hand Three)

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (13 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (9 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds.

River: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, MP3 3-bets, Hero folds, UTG+2 caps, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 21 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+2 has 9c Kc (flush, king high).
MP3 has Ac 3c (flush, ace high).
Outcome: MP3 wins 21 BB.

memphis57 · #2 02-20-2005, 01:30 PM

I don't see any major problems, this is just chumming the fishes. They wouldn't play that way if they didn't win some of the time. Play those hands the same way 100 times each and you'll win a lot of money.

On hand 2, I might raise KQ preflop, but that makes no difference here as AQs isn't going to fold.

On hand 3, I might check/call the river when the 3-flush came out to save one BB (or check/fold in this case when they start raising each other). But when he doesn't have the flush you'll lose one BB often enough that it's probably a wash over the long run.

I think your main problem is you forgot to sacrifice a chicken to the poker gods this week, to have 3 hands like that come up in 8 deals.

VTDuffman · #3 02-20-2005, 01:46 PM

The only problem I can see is that you bet with made draws on the river...

Except for that first hand, I don't know what that guy with the set of 5s was thinking. The second hand, it's obvious that someone was comming along to the ride. I usually check/call here, because he's probably not going to call a bet with a weaker hand, but he will raise you with the made draw. Ditto when the flush card comes out against that 3rd hand, someone's drawing there...you have to check that river.

GrunchCan · #4 02-20-2005, 02:08 PM

Hand 2, raise pf. Openlimping is pretty bad.

Otherwise, if these hands get to you, you may need to work on your suceptibility to going on tilt. This is going to happen in poker. You have to be able to take it.

cigarzfan · #5 02-20-2005, 02:29 PM

Thanks for ideas on river bets. I believe you all are right. With made hands, I'll check river.

Believe me, I wish I knew what I could do to turn my luck around. Unfortunately I have very very bad luck at tables. Fish routinely hit their river cards against me. It's most frustrating when they do it heads up with odds stacked against them.

Honestly, I don't know what to do. I win with AA only about 60% of time. My four flush flops hit about 1 in 5 times vs. mathematical 1 in 1.9. My pocket pairs hit 1 in about 15 vs. mathematical 1 in 9. This is over 20K hands.

This is why I'm posting hands to see what else I can do.

cigarzfan · #6 02-20-2005, 02:31 PM

I don't really go on tilt. I play hands same whether going bad or running good.

After these hands, I left the table to take some time to myself.

btspider · #7 02-20-2005, 02:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really go on tilt. I play hands same whether going bad or running good.

After these hands, I left the table to take some time to myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

eh, that's tilty. if its a profitable table and you want to play, the beats shouldn't make you want to leave.

that openlimp of KQ is horrendous.

GrunchCan · #8 02-20-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I win with AA only about 60% of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what's the problem? If your AA wins 60% of all multiway pots, I'd say your'e running hot.

GrunchCan · #9 02-20-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if its a profitable table and you want to play, the beats shouldn't make you want to leave.

[/ QUOTE ]

They should make you want to stay!

topspin · #10 02-20-2005, 03:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only problem I can see is that you bet with made draws on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

To check the river in any of these hands instead of betting would be horrible. Especially hand 3 if you're not betting because you fear a runner-runner flush.