Who folds this after the flop?

rmr1976 · #1 02-19-2005, 03:30 AM

I played this tonight. The table was a slightly loose passive game, and the opponent limped frequently with group 1 and 2 hands. I think I played OK, although I received some comments about this is a "horrible" way to play a draw.

With this flop, I have 15 outs to improve to the probable nuts:

any J or 6: 8
any H: 9
total: 17 - 2 (6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) or 15 outs.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, UTG (poster) checks.

Flop: (5 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, SB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

sy_or_bust · #2 02-19-2005, 03:34 AM

The flop 3-bet isn't the greatest. You're heads up and I'm not sure you win 50% of the time. Call the flop raise...rest is pretty standard, including river cap. In any case you didn't really blow this hand at any point....let the table coaches talk all they want [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

LowDown22 · #3 02-19-2005, 03:53 AM

I would just call the flop raise, but play the rest the same. With 15 outs you're a little worse than 2-to-1 to make your hand by the river. If there was a 3rd player than by all means 3-bet it.

trentcroad · #4 02-19-2005, 09:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call the flop raise, but play the rest the same. With 15 outs you're a little worse than 2-to-1 to make your hand by the river. If there was a 3rd player than by all means 3-bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree 100%

btspider · #5 02-19-2005, 01:05 PM

looks good to me. 2:1 is your odds to improve on the next street. you are a favorite against Ax here.

you are even a favorite vs two pair. a free card would be great (if he tries to check-raise you). if not, meh.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=779830
pokenum -h 9h 8h - ac 7s -- ah 7h ts
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts Ah 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9h 8h 499 50.40 491 49.60 0 0.00 0.504
7s Ac 491 49.60 499 50.40 0 0.00 0.496

Entity · #6 02-19-2005, 01:06 PM

Everyone saying you're a little worse than 2:1 to make your hand by the river is way off. You're a slight favorite here against TPTK, and even money vs. two pair.

You have to be able to put UTG+1 on a range of hands to know whether or not the 3-bet is good, though, because it's close.

If he's pumping a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], you're in a very bad spot, drawing to 4 outs (your pair outs are good, but it's hard to know that).

If he's got a set (7's or T's most likely), your situation isn't as bad -- your flush outs are effectively reduced by 1 or 2, depending on what suits he's holding.

If he's aggressive enough to push a top pair type hand this way or even something like A7s, then you're looking at about 48.5% equity in this pot on the average -- when you combine the potential for 3-betting getting you a free turn card with the equity you already have in this pot, I think a 3-bet is fine.

Rob

Entity · #7 02-19-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
looks good to me. 2:1 is your odds to improve on the next street. you are a favorite against Ax here.

you are even a favorite vs two pair. a free card would be great. if not, meh.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=779830
pokenum -h 9h 8h - ac 7s -- ah 7h ts
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts Ah 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9h 8h 499 50.40 491 49.60 0 0.00 0.504
7s Ac 491 49.60 499 50.40 0 0.00 0.496

[/ QUOTE ]

I came up with similar results, but I think you're a slight dog vs. the full range of 2pr hands.

Hand 1: 51.3623 % [ 00.51 00.00 ] { ATs, A7s, T7s, ATo, A7o }
Hand 2: 48.6377 % [ 00.49 00.00 ] { 9h8h }

rmr1976 · #8 02-19-2005, 03:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone saying you're a little worse than 2:1 to make your hand by the river is way off. You're a slight favorite here against TPTK, and even money vs. two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is how I was thinking at the table. The probability charts in Sklansky's books show a hand with 15 outs has about a 54% chance to improve on EITHER the turn OR river.
This was the number I had in mind when putting in those raises.

Granted, he may have me dominated with KQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but I wasn't all that worried about it. With most of his premium hand, I have a good chance to I draw out.

Considering the fact I may either get a free card, as well as fold to a more expensive river bet if I don't make the hand, I thought it was OK to push him around here.

He ended up having A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. If he would have raised pre-flop, instead of limp, trying to knock me out later, I'd have been forced to fold.

I have to laugh, because he was the one who told me those bets were "horrible", and that I shouldn't have called.

A great example of reverse implied odds. Thanks to those who responded.

einbert · #9 02-19-2005, 05:15 PM

Nice hand. I play it exactly the same. I can't see not 3-betting this flop, considering you are actually ahead of the range of hands I give him and your chance of a free card is much better 3-betting than just calling the raise.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

145,530 games 0.032 secs 4,547,812 games/sec

Board: Ah Ts 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 52.8139 % [ 00.53 00.00 ] { 9h8h }
Hand 2: 47.1861 % [ 00.47 00.00 ] { TT, 77, AKs-A2s, T7s, AKo-A2o, T7o }

Dead · #10 02-19-2005, 05:21 PM

How can you fold this flop? You have an open ended straight draw + a flush draw. You have a monster hand here.

Your river cap is great. Your villain did not play his hand like a flush draw. He most likely is pumping a set.

You're good here. Nice hand.

And if anyone gives you s*** for the way you played a hand, just say "Gamb00l".

They likely don't understand pot equity, and that powerful drawing hands should often be played like made hands.