Evaluate my 3-team parlay

[stackm]

I'm really a novice sports better, much more of a poker player, but I won a small bet yesterday on my first deposit so I figured I'd go for the big bucks today. I know parlays aren't usually the best bets, but do I have any chance on converting this one?

Parlay (3 Teams) 02/17/05 18:10 ET
50.00/887.13 Result: Pending
Cavaliers(Cleveland)
Timberwolves(Minnesota) 02/17/05 (20:10 ET)
Cavaliers(Cleveland) +145

Mavericks(Dallas)
Suns(Phoenix) 02/17/05 (22:40 ET)
Mavericks(Dallas) +240

UCLA
California 02/17/05 (22:40 ET)
UCLA +125

The two NBA unders seem more like coinflips to me (Dallas is not a 2.4-1 dog), and the UCLA game...well, gotta bet the home team :-).

Thoughts?

[tech]

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do I have any chance on converting this one?

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Sure there is a chance, but the only way this is profitable in the long run is if you believe these dogs are quite a bit more likely to win than the books are showing.

If you estimate those probabilities against the odds you are getting from the parlay, you can quickly tell how profitable or unprofitable it is.

[Buck_65]

Cal is going to smash UCLA, sorry to be the bringer of bad news.

[stackm]

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Sure there is a chance, but the only way this is profitable in the long run is if you believe these dogs are quite a bit more likely to win than the books are showing.


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Well, I understand that much; probability theory is no problem for me. I'm more curious as to your thoughts - are my estimations of all three games as essentially coinflips (Dallas is probably a slight under) accurate? If so, I'd be getting ~18-1 on a ~8 or 9-1 bet, obviously profitable. I'd expect that others feel that these games are not, however coinflips.

[stackm]

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Cal is going to smash UCLA, sorry to be the bringer of bad news.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you say that? The two teams match up pretty well.

[Buck_65]

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[ QUOTE ]
Cal is going to smash UCLA, sorry to be the bringer of bad news.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you say that? The two teams match up pretty well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just kidding around, but Cal is my team so I gotta back my boys. Good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[stackm]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just kidding around, but Cal is my team so I gotta back my boys. Good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You're from Davis and you're a Cal fan? Shouldn't you be off tipping cows somewhere? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Seriously though, I'm from the East Bay originally, so I'm rooting for Berkeley in most circumstances, but I've got to take the Bruins here. They've got no answer for Dijon.

[$DEADSEXE$]

I bet parlays alot especially on NBA now...don't like betting single bet's anymore till the end of the season when they games actually matter.

I don't like bettin multiple moneylines on a parlay. Throwing in one juicy ML if you really belive a team is going to pull an upset is ok, but it should really be +200 or more, though I'de never bet more than $20 on it.
You'de be better of taking the spread..especially in the Dallas/PHx game. Phoenix isn't going to be upset at home by Dallas.

The moneyline on the Cle game is ok because Cle is either going to win or get blown out. I think CLe will win easy.

Had it been me I would have taking the Clev moneyline Dallas with the points..and two more game with the points I was solid on.

Actually i probally wouldnt have bothered with the ML on the Cle/Minn game seeing that its only +145...not really worth it.

But good luck none the less.

I'm going to be posting 10 4 team parlays for $50 a piece over the next two weeks.
won $500 on the GS/Sea second half over...so figured ide have soem fun with it...anyways we'll see how i do.
hopefully i can at least win one lol

[stackm]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to be posting 10 4 team parlays for $50 a piece over the next two weeks.
won $500 on the GS/Sea second half over...so figured ide have soem fun with it...anyways we'll see how i do.
hopefully i can at least win one lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the advice, much appreciated. I took GS straight up last night at +700 and that worked out for me, hence the fun, wacky parlay tonight, lol.

[$DEADSEXE$]

when doing 3-5 team parlays you really one want one ML of +200 or more....having all moneylines is a bit risky....but if you decide to do it..decrease your bet..the increased odds will make up for it