Internet Poker is NOT Dying!

dacubbie · #1 02-17-2005, 11:08 AM

I'm sure most of you realize this. However, as a college student, I can assure you that poker is not dying. A few of my friends are aware that I play a lot of poker on the internet. They know I've made a little bit of money, and assume that they can do the same. However, the crazy thing is that they think they can take their style of play from our weekly games and turn it into long term success on the internet. Keep in mind, our weekly games are as good as rolling a die. .50/1 blinds with a normal buyin of $10-$20. Lol. People staying to the river with low pair and lots of betting. No concept of equity or pot odds. Calling someone's all in with a jack high flush draw. Every now and then one of them will catch me playing on the internet and watch for a while. I don't know how many times I've heard, "You folded ten jack?!?!" "You folded ten queen, are you crazy!?!?!" Keep in mind that these are the people that are confident in their ability to "crush the fishes that play online poker". Don't sweat it guys, if you catch all the fish, more will take their place.

mc1 · #2 02-17-2005, 11:16 AM

Dont think many people ever thought it was dying, it is still growing an a hell of a rate, I dont think we are even anywhere near the peak.

The online poker rooms havn't even reached the consolidation stage of the industry yet.

It will be years before a decline is noticed unless several of the major sites are proven to be cheating the punters.

lorinda · #3 02-17-2005, 11:22 AM

it is still growing an a hell of a rate,

People here are just starting to get bored of it on the TV, I don't think the UK peak is far away.

Apparently there is going to be a poker channel too, that will pretty much finish it, 20-30 shows a week already is WAYYY too much.

This is what happened to snooker and now that game is really struggling.

Lori

revots33 · #4 02-17-2005, 11:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't sweat it guys, if you catch all the fish, more will take their place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said it was dying? However, to think that there will be an endless supply of fish forever is naive in my opinion. Many losing players will eventually get frustrated and give up. Many other losing players will get better and no longer be fish. The poker craze will eventually die down and less new players will be joining the game. There will be a higher proportion of good players vs. fish than there is right now.

My fear is that poker is very close to overexposure on TV right now, and overexposure usually leads to backlash which leads to something no longer being considered "cool".

This might take months or it might take years, so we should enjoy it while it lasts. But in the long run we can't count on terrible players to keep making endless donations. We have to get better in order to continue to win against an improving pool of opponents.

You're friends might be bad players, but if they keep redepositing often enough they'll either improve out of necessity, or find a better use for their time and money.

crownjules · #5 02-17-2005, 11:44 AM

That's in the UK. There is a fascination in the US with the "get rich quick scheme" and gambling, and poker easily satisfies both. People see it on TV and think they can go down to the casino or go online and be just as successful overnight. So long as the government doesn't put a damper on it, I don't see the growth curbing here in the US.

My parents have just started watching the poker games (they don't have cable and some of the public networks have finally gotten around to jumping on the bandwagon). I was very surprised when my mom said it was an exciting game. They know that I play poker occassionally, but not to the extent that I do. I doubt my parents will ever get into gambling as they're very money minded, but the fact that they've just gotten interested goes to show you that there is still LOTS of untapped potential in this market.

ApolloQuiet · #6 02-17-2005, 11:46 AM

This past week, the waiting lists for the good 3/6 games seemed to be longer than usual.

lorinda · #7 02-17-2005, 11:49 AM

My parents have just started watching the poker games

That's the big difference.

People's parents/random people are just starting to turn off now.
We have of course had poker on TV significantly longer here and I believe we've had a lot more of it than you guys too.

Here are the listings for just one channel, and this is before the poker channel launches.

Challenge TV UK

Lori

mc1 · #8 02-17-2005, 11:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
it is still growing an a hell of a rate,

People here are just starting to get bored of it on the TV, I don't think the UK peak is far away.

Apparently there is going to be a poker channel too, that will pretty much finish it, 20-30 shows a week already is WAYYY too much.

This is what happened to snooker and now that game is really struggling.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Rubbish, the uk people currently playing online are the early adaptors, I am hearing of loads of friends/colleagues etc who are only just starting to play online following 12 months of watching it on the tele.

That may well be a TV peak but that is far different from a player peak.

lorinda · #9 02-17-2005, 11:57 AM

That may well be a TV peak but that is far different from a player peak.

The player peak will follow at a similar period behind.

I know a lot of people who have given up in the last 12 months, and although there are still new people coming in, the numbers will level off.

I'm not saying it will die, but it will peak quicker than you expect and then level off for a considerable period.

As I was typing this I tried to think of as many as I could who have stopped playing, and it's way over 20.
The good news is that if 30 start and 20 stop, it's still an improvement.
The bad news is that if people stop starting, it will go into decline.

Thankfully I believe the American market will keep going for some time yet.

Lori

crownjules · #10 02-17-2005, 12:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]

People's parents/random people are just starting to turn off now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Before landing my current IT job a month ago, I worked as a waiter in a resturant for the better part of 7 months. There was a TV at the bar. During slow hours, I'd flip on poker shows if there were any airing. I don't know how many people came over from their tables just to sneak a peak for a few minutes and make some comments, but it was more than just a few.