Chasing Implied Odds.....Why was I compelled to make this call

Carmine · #1 02-17-2005, 12:40 AM

On the flop I put UTG+1 on the flush draw.
On the turn I feel i have to call with top two because I could be wrong about the flush. When it's two back to me I know for sure the flush hit and possibly for both villians. I don't have odds to draw to my four outs, but I know my implied odds are huge if I hit. This is a terrible call correct?? How many of you still make it nonetheless?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP2 calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (17 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 29 BB

Clarkmeister · #2 02-17-2005, 01:39 AM

Do the math, this is pretty simple. How many outs do you have? How many unknown cards are left in the deck? How often do you figure you are putting in 3 more bets on the turn instead of just 2? How many bets do you figure to collect on the river?

It's a math problem, you don't need us to justify the call for you.

Carmine · #3 02-17-2005, 08:56 PM

When I first read Clark's response I took it as a slap in the face to see it was an easy fold.
Then I took a few moments to do the math. When it's two back to me on the turn the odds are now 14:2 actually 15:2 because you know UTG+1 is going to call. So I am getting 7.5:1 on a 11:1 shot. Immediate odds say fold. Now add the implied odds on the river which I was quite certain these two guys were going to war for a minimum three bets before someone backed down. So I add 6 more bets and now have 13.5:1 on my 11:1 call (no more bets go in on the river if I miss of course). I unknowingly made the right decision.

Even if it got capped on the turn. I would have only been getting 5.6:1 on my 11:1 call but with the implied I get 11.6:1 so I'm still good.

Can someone confirm this for me. Any other scenarios I may be missing which may have turned this into a fold.

imashyboi · #4 05-21-2005, 06:51 AM

This is a easy call. By the time it gets back to you on the turn, you'll have 14-1 for your 4 outter(this includes the implied odds on the turn ONLY). On the river, you'll get an extra bet from the original raiser which makes your total pot odds to about 15-1. If the turn is cap, you still have to call since you'll have the nuts if you hit and you'll win a huge pot.

It would be different however if you made the bet first and got raised, reraised, then you'll have to cold-call two big bets on the turn. Even with implied odds, I don't think calling this would make it profitable. Your getting about 8-1 but you need about 10.5-1.

Nick Royale · #5 05-21-2005, 07:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When it's two back to me on the turn the odds are now 14:2 actually 15:2 because you know UTG+1 is going to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't know UTG+1 is going to call. He could easily cap if he's holding the flush.

[ QUOTE ]
So I am getting 7.5:1 on a 11:1 shot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Getting 15:2 is NOT the same as getting 7.5:1.

If the turn gets capped you're getting 17:3 on your call. Your drawing odds are 1:10.5 ~ 3:31.5. In this case you need to compensate by getting 14.5BB (31.5-17= 14.5) on the river.

If the turn don't get capped you're getting the pot odds 15:2 on your 1:10.5 ~ 2:21 draw. In this case you need to win 6BB (21-15= 6) on the river.

Lets say this turn will be capped 30% of the time, then you need to make 8.5BB (0.70*6 + 0.3*14.5 = 8.5) on the river at average. You can see that's impossible against only 2 opponents.´

[ QUOTE ]
Now add the implied odds on the river which I was quite certain these two guys were going to war for a minimum three bets before someone backed down.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very optimistic estimation and on average this will not be the case. Even if you would get 6BB from them at average and you would never get capped on the turn it would still be a break even play. This is assuming your 2 pair will never hold up UI.

Carmine · #6 05-21-2005, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When it's two back to me on the turn the odds are now 14:2 actually 15:2 because you know UTG+1 is going to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't know UTG+1 is going to call. He could easily cap if he's holding the flush.

[ QUOTE ]
So I am getting 7.5:1 on a 11:1 shot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Getting 15:2 is NOT the same as getting 7.5:1.

If the turn gets capped you're getting 17:3 on your call. Your drawing odds are 1:10.5 ~ 3:31.5. In this case you need to compensate by getting 14.5BB (31.5-17= 14.5) on the river.

If the turn don't get capped you're getting the pot odds 15:2 on your 1:10.5 ~ 2:21 draw. In this case you need to win 6BB (21-15= 6) on the river.

Lets say this turn will be capped 30% of the time, then you need to make 8.5BB (0.70*6 + 0.3*14.5 = 8.5) on the river at average. You can see that's impossible against only 2 opponents.´

[ QUOTE ]
Now add the implied odds on the river which I was quite certain these two guys were going to war for a minimum three bets before someone backed down.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very optimistic estimation and on average this will not be the case. Even if you would get 6BB from them at average and you would never get capped on the turn it would still be a break even play. This is assuming your 2 pair will never hold up UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a three month old thread that has resurfaced. I appreciate the responses anyway. However, before I send this over to the Probability Forum would anyone care to expalin to me what Nick is trying to say here. I have no idea why "15:2 is not the same as 7.5:1" I also do not understand what "Your drawing odds are 1:10.5 ~ 3:31.5" means. To me I'm 10.5:1 to fill up on the river. What the ~ stands for or where the 3:31.5 comes from is where I become lost. Maybe this is just the slap in the face I needed to spend a few months over in the Prob Forum [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. What a way to spend the summer.

Nick Royale · #7 05-21-2005, 06:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
However, before I send this over to the Probability Forum would anyone care to expalin to me what Nick is trying to say here. I have no idea why "15:2 is not the same as 7.5:1" I also do not understand what "Your drawing odds are 1:10.5 ~ 3:31.5" means.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nick can! 15:2 is not the same as 7.5:1 since the more money you put in the pot the worse your implied odds get.

The ~ maybe should actually be replaced with a =. ~ means aproximately.