Folding AK on the bubble

[egj]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

BB (t1330)
UTG (t2925)
Hero (t2715)
SB (t1030)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t2925 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t3375

Party 20/2.

I initially thought I was being really weak to fold here, but an ICM analysis seems to indicate it was the right decision.

My share of the prize pool according to ICM under the different possible outcomes:

Fold: 0.3173
Call&amp;win: 0.449
Call&amp;lose: 0

Since 0.3173 is about 70% of 0.449, I would need to be a &gt;= 70% favorite to win for this to be a good call. AK is only a 70% favorite against a dominated hand like A7. Against most hands, it is less than 70%.

Comments?

[curtains]

I like folding.

[rachelwxm]

standard.