Call down turn raise from passive player w/ TP2K?

randomfish · #1 02-15-2005, 01:50 PM

Villain is sLP-P, 23/4/.8 at around 40 hands.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero...

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Well, villain checks out of the BB so he could have literally any two. Since he's passive, I don't think a flushdraw is likely although it probably shouldn't be completely discounted. I've got 8 outs against a raggedy 2-pair (like 63 or 96), 6 outs against J6, 3 K's against AJ or J9, and I'm dead against a set.

Call and c/f river? Or do I have enough showdown value to call down here?

droolie · #2 02-15-2005, 01:59 PM

Flip a coin. I don't think it's wrong to call down, fold UI on the river or fold the turn. I certainly tend to call these down HU though. I wouldn't put in a raise even if I hit one of my outs on the river. This is a flush play 50% of the time easy.

Nick Royale · #3 02-15-2005, 02:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a flush play 50% of the time easy.

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You don't mean he'll have a flush 50% of the time? If he would then folding the turn is easy.

I would probably fold anyways.

droolie · #4 02-15-2005, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a flush play 50% of the time easy.

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You don't mean he'll have a flush 50% of the time? If he would then folding the turn is easy.

I would probably fold anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if the other 50% of the time he has nothing but two pair or less. He really only needs to win 20% of the time to make the calldown correct. The question is does his hand win that much. I really don't know. That's why I can't really say what I prefer to do here.

tiltaholic · #5 02-15-2005, 02:26 PM

i'm butting in to say that 40 hands is not enough of a read for me to not see the river. if he's passive postflop, that is not consistent with him betting a flush draw on the flop, as you mention.

imho, it is most likely has either has a lone (weaker jack) or some random 2-pair. either way i'm seeing the river heads up.

Nick Royale · #6 02-15-2005, 02:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not if the other 50% of the time he has nothing but two pair or less. He really only needs to win 20% of the time to make the calldown correct. The question is does his hand win that much. I really don't know. That's why I can't really say what I prefer to do here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think his play indicates he's slowplaying a set, playing a flush or that the 3 on the turn helped him to get another pair to his J.

Sure he could also have been slowplaing another 2 pair but that's not equally likely and if he has I would still think he holds a J since slowplaying bottom 2 pair would be really stupid. If he holds 2 pair J-high we'll be drawing to 3 outs.

If our opponent holds a flush 50% of the time we'll be drawing to at best ~4 outs the rest of the times. On average (including the flush) he'll be drawing to 2 outs. So if our opponents holds a flush 50% of the time folding would be easy.

Sure, at rare occasions Hero's ahead on the turn. But not near enough to compensate IMO.

randomfish · #7 02-15-2005, 05:33 PM

So consensus seems to be a fold, or check/fold river UI.

Just for fun: I called down and villain turns over his Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Nick Royale · #8 02-15-2005, 06:14 PM

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So consensus seems to be a fold, or check/fold river UI.

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With more hands on the opponent and the same numbers I'll fold here every time. What I was saying was mainly that if I knew I was up to flush 50% of the time I would fold for sure. I don't think my opponent holds a flush here even 20% so folding/calling down is very close.

If I call the turn i'm also calling the river, but as Droolie said, that's close also.

[ QUOTE ]
Just for fun: I called down and villain turns over his QQ

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, you shouldn't draw to big coclusion of winning one hand like this, but I'm actually getting shown these hands (or like KT) pretty often when calling down in these situations. I'm getting more and more inclined to call down for every time I get shown one of this strange hands.

randomfish · #9 02-15-2005, 06:40 PM

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I'm getting more and more inclined to call down for every time I get shown one of this strange hands.

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Would you then say that, if everything else fails and you're still uncertain, call down?

I feel decisions like these may be one of my major weaknesses. I feel I'm always calling down with losers, and because the pots aren't very big and I'm paying 2 BB minimum each time I feel like they might be -EV. But then I also hate to fold all the time at 1/2 because it seems to me people pick up on this and start playing back very aggressively, only to 3-bet-fold when I've got real hands.

Bit of a conundrum, but a learning experience I guess.

Nick Royale · #10 02-15-2005, 06:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I feel decisions like these may be one of my major weaknesses. I feel I'm always calling down with losers, and because the pots aren't very big and I'm paying 2 BB minimum each time I feel like they might be -EV. But then I also hate to fold all the time at 1/2 because it seems to me people pick up on this and start playing back very aggressively, only to 3-bet-fold when I've got real hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Since you only have to win 20% of the time to make calling down +EV, it can't be to much of a mistake calling down. Could also be usefull to get a read on the player. When I started playing I gave to much credit for these c/r's. Now I'm calling down much more and I think that i've been gaining doing it.