Knowing When You're Beat

[gaming_mouse]

BB had just sat down. UTG has TAG stats after 120 hands but seems like a conservative TAG. I had an instinct I was beaten after the flop, and also thought that even if the 4-flush landed my J was probably no good.

Anyone fold here on the turn? How about the river?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.16 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.16 BB

[Shillx]

Fold preflop. I would fold preflop to the limp-reraise too.

Fold the flop. A "conservative" TAG who limp reraises can beat your QJ here. If he is the type to try for a limp-reraise he could have something tricky up his sleve post flop as well. BB betting into a limp-reraiser has a set off warning signs too.

Brad

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I would fold preflop to the limp-reraise too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold PF, really? This is 5 handed, after all, and I'm on the button, and the TAG is likely adjusting his UTG limping standards. I don't think that's a fold, but maybe I'm wrong.

As for folding to the limp re-raise, that's interesting. I am getting 6:1 or 7:1 on the call, but you may be right. I am probably at best against two overcards, next best dominated, and at worst against an overpair. All told, you probably are right. I just hate folding for 1 more bet there.

How about the flop play? Where do you fold?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I would fold preflop to the limp-reraise too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold PF, really? This is 5 handed, after all, and I'm on the button, and the TAG is likely adjusting his UTG limping standards. I don't think that's a fold, but maybe I'm wrong.

As for folding to the limp re-raise, that's interesting. I am getting 6:1 or 7:1 on the call, but you may be right. I am probably at best against two overcards, next best dominated, and at worst against an overpair. All told, you probably are right. I just hate folding for 1 more bet there.

How about the flop play? Where do you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap I didn't see that it was 5 handed. If this were a 10 handed game, I hope you fold this preflop. That was pretty much what I was getting at. I don't do shorthanded games so my advice will probably be far from noteworthy.

Brad

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I would fold preflop to the limp-reraise too.

Fold the flop. A "conservative" TAG who limp reraises can beat your QJ here. If he is the type to try for a limp-reraise he could have something tricky up his sleve post flop as well. BB betting into a limp-reraiser has a set off warning signs too.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Still fold holding the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
If this were a 10 handed game, I hope you fold this preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do, but only b/c UTG is a tag. I like my button.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I would fold preflop to the limp-reraise too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold PF, really? This is 5 handed, after all, and I'm on the button, and the TAG is likely adjusting his UTG limping standards. I don't think that's a fold, but maybe I'm wrong.

As for folding to the limp re-raise, that's interesting. I am getting 6:1 or 7:1 on the call, but you may be right. I am probably at best against two overcards, next best dominated, and at worst against an overpair. All told, you probably are right. I just hate folding for 1 more bet there.

How about the flop play? Where do you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap I didn't see that it was 5 handed. If this were a 10 handed game, I hope you fold this preflop. That was pretty much what I was getting at. I don't do shorthanded games so my advice will probably be far from noteworthy.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't fold it preflop.

[mprhino]

What am I missing here? if this was a full game, with one limper, even though he is TAG and UTG, why would you fold this on the button?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
What am I missing here? if this was a full game, with one limper, even though he is TAG and UTG, why would you fold this on the button?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Brad was arguing that, not Nate. But the idea is that if he is a TAG, there is an excellent chance you are dominated if he's playing a hand UTG.

OTOH, a TAG would be likely to raise something like AQ or any high pocket pair, so an UTG limp by a tag is more likely to mean a small pocket pair or perhaps something like A8s. Since you have position, calling might not be that bad even in this case. If the player is known to limp AA or KK, then it's another story.

[mprhino]

Yeah, my bad, I did respond to the wrong post. Clearly if he is known to limp reraise you need to be a little wary. But he's probably mucking KJ utg, so you're dominated by KQ and AJ. It just seems to me mucking this preflop would be weak/tight