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#1
02-14-2005, 01:38 PM
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How often (if ever) do you guys make big ML plays??
Just wondering.. as a big ML play on the rockets turned a pretty big losing day, into a small winning day for me yesterday... (was much closer then it should have been portland went off hitting 3s to pull bring it right down to the wire)..
The bet was made at -280 and was obviously somewhat risky.. (every now and then I play one of these just to gamble a bit) I have had a couple moneyline runs where i will set aside 2 units, and try to roll it up into like 5 or 6 then withdraw it.. using all money line plays.. Ex- bet 2 units on a moneyline play, to win 1 unit.. then bet the 3 units to win another 1 or two.. and so on.. just wondering if anyone else does anything else like this? For the record, im just slightly above even using this play, after a upset loss against phoenix last time i tried one of these runs. Thoughts comments suggestions stories all welcome [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#2
02-14-2005, 01:49 PM
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Re: How often (if ever) do you guys make big ML plays??
[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering.. as a big ML play on the rockets turned a pretty big losing day, into a small winning day for me yesterday... (was much closer then it should have been portland went off hitting 3s to pull bring it right down to the wire).. The bet was made at -280 and was obviously somewhat risky.. (every now and then I play one of these just to gamble a bit) I have had a couple moneyline runs where i will set aside 2 units, and try to roll it up into like 5 or 6 then withdraw it.. using all money line plays.. Ex- bet 2 units on a moneyline play, to win 1 unit.. then bet the 3 units to win another 1 or two.. and so on.. just wondering if anyone else does anything else like this? For the record, im just slightly above even using this play, after a upset loss against phoenix last time i tried one of these runs. Thoughts comments suggestions stories all welcome [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Once a week or so I'll throw in 3 or 4 team ML parlay. Grab a couple heavy favorites and one that's close to a pick and it'll pay about 2-1. There might not be huge value in these, but they work out.
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#3
02-14-2005, 02:00 PM
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Re: How often (if ever) do you guys make big ML plays??
I have had no luck at all parlaying moneylines.. hate to say the best I have done with parlays is in a 4 teamer with 2 sides and 2 totals i got 3 wins and a push for a pretty good payout, (at the time i thought the whole thing was a push) so i was content with winning like 3x what i had bet..
Just dont play enough of these really, ever since I heard they are a suckers trap, I try my best to stay away.. hitting a nice 6 or 8 teamer would rule though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#4
02-14-2005, 02:09 PM
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Re: How often (if ever) do you guys make big ML plays??
Just like any other bet, you need to have an edge. If a favorite is priced at -300, but they are 90% to win, then there is value. If a dog is priced at +200 when they are 40% to win, there is value.
As an example, Super Bowl underdogs are traditionally overbet on the ML, meaning the favorite usually has value. Big favorites are sometimes underbet because people like to go for the huge payday on the dog. Other than that, it really depends on the sport, the teams, etc.
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#6
02-14-2005, 04:15 PM
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Re: How often (if ever) do you guys make big ML plays??
Yup.. this is the basic rational I try to use when looking at those picks.. borrowed the concept from 'pot odds' on the poker table.. used that and it made perfect sense to me.
thanks [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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