How likely is it that I'm bad?

[bear187]

A few of you probably saw my post a day or two ago about having lost my way down to 40$ from 160$ after investing 50$. I'm playing .5/1 on PP, and I've read through SSH.

Today I started out really well, I got all the way back up to 100$. Now I'm sitting at 40$ once again. Is this just variance? Or do I have some serious leaks in my game? I've been posting hands that I think I've messed up on, and the mistakes seem pretty minor, surely not enough for me to have 50bb swings daily. Is this normal, bad luck, or do I really need to re-evaluate my choice to play poker?

[Sadat X]

Short answer - it's too early to know.

First off, get a bigger bankroll - $300 should be enough for .5/1 so you don't have to worry about swings. Then play for a substantial amount of time and re-assess your results. Keep posting and analyzing hands and you should be fine.

[lighterjobs]

what do you mean by "choice to play poker"? if you are playing for fun and only have $50 to invest you should play the micro limits where you don't have to worry about the swings. besides, at .50/1 there is really no difference than at .2/.4 limit hold'em.

[BradL]

[ QUOTE ]
mistakes seem pretty minor, surely not enough for me to have 50bb swings daily

[/ QUOTE ]

50bb swing is not unsual. Over how many hands?

-Brad

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
at .50/1 there is really no difference than at .2/.4 limit hold'em.

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

I assume you mean .02/.04. Still no.

[bear187]

Dunno how many hands. Been playing pretty much all day, so maybe 6 hours? 2tabling too. And no I don't play for fun, even though I enjoy poker, I'm playing so that I get better and eventually bring in some money.

[trapeze]

I think that you would be well served to invest in:

1) a bigger bankroll so you can stop worrying so much about the swings.

2) a few more books. SSH is very good but there are others that you should have under your belt. I would highly recommend books that are not just about strategy like The Psychology of Poker and The Tao of Poker.

3) purchase and use Poker Tracker. One of the best buys for online play. The auto-rate feature is very good for understanding just where you are. In all likelyhood it will answer your question about whether or not you are bad.

The good news is that even if you are bad you don't have to stay that way. The fact that you are participating in a forum puts you ahead of 98% of those that play online. Good luck, work hard and keep your head up.

trap

[Robk]

based on this post alone id lay 30:1 that youre bad. excluding the possibility that this is some kind of joke.

[DavidC]

Damn near everyone has serious leaks in their game.

How many hands did you play?

How closely were you paying attention?

How many tables were you playing?

What did you know about the players at your table?

--Dave.

[DavidC]

Come on, dude!

If you can judge the probability of this being a joke, you can put together a bet that takes that into account.

Put a little more effort into your posts. I suggest starting by using the "I want to preview my post" checkbox.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

(You should probably (but not definitely) take post number into account also.)