Slowplaying a set heads up?

Absolution · #1 02-13-2005, 07:31 PM

I'll have to do this one from memory because it was from a while ago and it's been bugging me. I think one of my problems is getting too paranoid about people drawing out on me (a result of playing primarily low-buy) so I bet out the majority of the time instead of looking for opportunities to take risks to extract more chips. Here's an example:

It's middle to late in a low-stakes tournament and I'm sitting nicely with around 8k with 30/60 blinds. I'm on the button and the CO (a LAG player, but better than most after the flop for low stakes) has a built a crazy stack of around 20K. All folded to him and he raises to 210. I have 66 and decide to call figuring I could get a nice double up if I catch a set. So, we go to the flop heads up:

5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He immediately fires a pot sized bet (standard for UB low stakes). I've got my set, but the connected and flushed board scares me and I come over the top for a ridiculous amount. He folds. I picked up an okay pot, but it's a negative play for a set. His pot bet looked like a draw, but could also be an overpair. Should I have just called here? What if a club or a 7 comes on the turn? What's my plan if I smooth call on a scarey board heads up? Should I take more risks in this situation and not worry about monsters under the bed when it's heads up?

:/

Iconoclastic · #2 02-13-2005, 08:33 PM

Try using math to figure out your EV from raising big as opposed to slowplaying. Use numbers like your relative stack sizes, ICM, and your reads to give you an idea of what your opponent will do. It's fairly complicated but if you put in the work you should get a clear idea of which move is better for you.

From my experience I'm pretty sure the correct play depends on factors like relative stack sizes and pot size.

RoyalLance · #3 02-13-2005, 08:37 PM

It's not as bad as it seems. Slowplaying sets is okay in NLH tournamets, but this is not the time. The oppenent's pot sized bet was probably a move to shoo away flush and straight draws draws, meaning he may have have a pair or two pair, both you can beat, or pocket fives or sixes. But he may be concealing a straight or flush draw. I raise to about 1000 or 2000. That may have be enough to scare him out if was drawing or had two pair or worse. He did not get a big stack by making unprofitable calls. He got it by killing fish pre-flop. Keep note of that.

rookieplus · #4 02-13-2005, 10:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
meaning he may have have a pair or two pair, both you can beat, or pocket fives or sixes

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's got pocket 6's that would make 5 in the deck. I know online poker is rigged but ...

Seriously though, I think you need to make a bet right here that takes away any drawing odds he has assuming he's drawing to a flush (and remembering that one of his flush outs makes a full house for you).

You're getting all your chips in with the best hand (if he calls). His bet smells like an over pair. Worst case I see here is Ac Kc and you're still a favorite to that.

You're a 75/25 favorite over Ac Kc, a 60/40 favorite over Ac 7c (a hand you couldn't really put him on), an 85/15 favorite over an overpair (other than 9's) that includes a club, and a 75/25 favorite over 9x 9c.

If he has 88 (and that's really fearing monsters under the bed), he's probably slowplaying it if he's a LAGgy as you think.

Slowplaying here seems not right because of the number of cards that will potentially scare you off your next bet. He may only have a few outs but the number of scare cards is huge here - 8 clubs, 3 more 4's, 3 more 7's, 3 more 9's, T's, J's Q's, K's and A's. I count 32 scare cards. Bet now.

Absolution · #5 02-14-2005, 12:32 AM

That was my thinking basically. If the flop came something like K 6 2 with two clubs or was the same flop I got, but rainbow, I might be more inclined to give him one card. But, with both the flushes and straights out there facing a loose player, I decided to take the pot right there. It really only bugged me because I had flopped the set I wanted and was planning to milk it for a big pot against the big stack. I guess it doesn't always work out.

Still, a set is about the minimum hand I'll consider slowplaying in a low stakes tournament, but the situation has to be right. A nice pot and/or scarey cards makes me push hard right away, even heads up.

Potowame · #6 02-14-2005, 12:44 AM

I havent read the other responses..

You need to raise here for several reasons.

1. If club or 7 comes off on the turn its doubtful that it will help the other players hand. So he will shut down, and not put another dime in the pot.

2. If he has a big pair he will possible pay you off

3. You will have a idea what he has, draw he calls , big PP he may push your reraise.

So pot was about T1000 after his flop bet of around 500.

I would reraise to about 1500, if he has anything he calls. If he has Dick he folds.