open-ended straight and flush draw

[baiter]

$2/$5 NL 8-handed. Sort of loose-aggressive table, and I have a very tight image (showing only big pairs and nuts for 2-3 hours).

Only one limper, I'm on Button with q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and decide to screw around. I make it $20. BB ($300) calls, limper in MP ($700) calls. I have them both covered.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets $25, MP raises to $100. I put BB on any ace and MP limper on AJ or A10 2-pair. Pot at this point is about $190.

I think for a bit and push.

What's your move here?

[Pipestew]

Interestingly enough, I just posted a similar hand.

In this case, I think I just call the MP raise because if you put MP on two pair, especially top two, then there is little chance that he is folding his hand...therefore you do not take down the pot at this point.

However, if you have a strong feeling that both players will call your all-in raise, then you are actually getting great odds to get your money in there.

On the other hand, if you put either player on a set, possibly TT, then your you lose several of your outs to the flush. It is also possible that MP has Ax with the nut flush draw - making your flush draw dead.

Due to the numerous hand possibilities of your two opponents, I think calling is most likely the best play in this situation.

[Jedster]

If you go all-in, the hand you have to worry about is KQ. If your read is correct and you up against top two and ace-x, then you are going to win about 52% of the time. However, if one of the players has a set, that drops to 43% or so. But if one player has KQ you're only 34%.

Clearly pushing all in gives you a chance to win the pot right there, but it also gives you a chance to give a ton of action to the nuts.

I think the decisions rests on your assessment of the likelihood of your opponents folding two pair or even a set if you go all in. If they are going to call every time with those hands, just calling gives you a chance to hold onto your money until you are a big(ger) favorite, especially since 3 of your outs -- offsuit 9s -- won't slow those hands down and you'll be able to get a ton of money in the pot while you are way ahead.

The problem is that if you just call and the MP goes all in on the turn, you'll have to fold unless you've hit your hand. And you aren't likely to get a ton of action if you hit broadway, unless you are free-rolling the player in first position.

I think if I were heads up I would be much more likely to make the all-in play. But given the action your chance of making the MP fold (and the chance that EP has KQ) argues for just calling.

Plus if you're lucky and a blank hits the turn, the MP might get fancy and try to check raise you, assuming you're $100 call means you had AK or AQ. Can you spell free card?

[Loci]

Good post.