44 flops a set - any way to protect it?

reubenf · #1 02-13-2005, 07:29 AM

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (17 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero ???

The pot is huge and I'm thinking I'd like to protect against some longshot draws. If I bet and the preflop bettor raises, the field is still getting good odds to draw to a 4-outer and again for one bet on the turn.

What I really want to do is check/call the flop, bet out on the turn, have CO raise and face the field with unfavorable odds to longshot draws. But is there really any way I can expect this to happen?

Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, SB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero ???

I think the pot is already large enough now that there's nothing I can do. So I ram & jam.

Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, UTG calls.

River: (20 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 24 BB

Womble · #2 02-13-2005, 07:34 AM

Do you think UTG would play 25 or 57? I dont, I would raise the river and call a reraise

Dead · #3 02-13-2005, 07:36 AM

Don't worry about protecting against longshot draws.

You have a monster hand here. Good 3bet on the flop. Raise the river. Call a 3bet.

_bustedflush_ · #4 02-13-2005, 07:36 AM

raise the river

reubenf · #5 02-13-2005, 07:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't worry about protecting against longshot draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Is it because there isn't a way to do it in this situation?

Dead · #6 02-13-2005, 07:52 AM

No, because your pot equity is so huge that you just don't need to worry about it. You're going to win this pot the vast, vast majority of the time. If there is a flush draw out there, it's only 25% to win against you. If there is a 4-flush out against you, then it's just between you and him. Almost everyone else is virtually drawing dead, assuming they don't have two pair or something.

reubenf · #7 02-13-2005, 08:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think UTG would play 25 or 57?

[/ QUOTE ]

I do now [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Wario · #8 02-13-2005, 09:57 AM

Don't worry about protecting this. Your hand is not vunerable, even if someone hits a longshot you have loads of outs to beat it. Giving your opponents unfavourable odds is unlikely because the pot is so huge and you are on the preflop raiser's right.

I check/raise this flop and cap if I can.

Raise the river your hand is good most of the time (call a 3-bet).

itsmesteve · #9 02-13-2005, 11:31 AM

I've seen a few "raise the river" comments, but i like going for overcalls. For 2 bets hero may lose the two still to act, and the only way to make up those bets is if utg 3bets and hero caps. I think a 3 bet can also spell trouble for hero's chances of dragging the pot, so I think calling is good. Am I missing something??

Nick Royale · #10 02-13-2005, 11:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen a few "raise the river" comments, but i like going for overcalls. For 2 bets hero may lose the two still to act, and the only way to make up those bets is if utg 3bets and hero caps. I think a 3 bet can also spell trouble for hero's chances of dragging the pot, so I think calling is good. Am I missing something??

[/ QUOTE ]
In general, I would like going for overcalls on this river. But this 3 shouldn't be a scarecard since the only draw it completes is a gutshot straightdraw built by 52. I can't put my opponent on 52 here often enough to justifying a call. Yes, I might end up getting less money into the pot compared to going for overcalls, if both players yet to act would have called 1BB but will fold for 2BB. But there are great possibilties for them calling anyway since the pot is big. If you only get 1 of them calling you'll get more money into the pot than if you would go for overcalls. I don't hate going for overcalls on this river but I think raising is better.