"You must be really good at Pai-gow [you can't play Hold'em]" - *wtf?*

[MN_Mime]

This was the capstone of a dynamic 5-10 minute tirade. Other choice moments included, "I don't know how you can have any chips in front of you", "You don't have the odds to make that call", "You're not even drawing to the nuts", "How can you even afford the buy-in the way you play?"

---

Maybe he's right in principle. I was in Hour 10 of a 12-hour session at a dream 4/8 B&M table and my play was detiorating but I was still making headway against the field. Our cast hasn't changed in several hours and I was up about 40-50 BB at the time.


The Cast:

SB: ok, but not intimidating or impressive. He's been running a little poor and I know I can push him off a hand if I need to.

BB: LAG. Will play pretty much any two broadway and if suited, will raise from any position. Will play any two suited in late position. Not really pertinent, but he's dead money.

Villain (MP1): mid-20s and likes to talk about pot odds at the table. Swaggers such that you know he thinks he's the best at the table and he is up about 15 BB, but this is a dream table so that doesn't mean much. LAG that almost seems ok, but somehow manages to play 30%-40% of his hands. I've not seen him show down anything totally stupid.

Hero (Button): A thinking man's maniac. I was playing the people and not the cards a couple of hours ago and deliberately switched gears to tighten up and showdown some monsters for a while to improve my table image.


The Hand:

Villain limps, Hero limps Jc2c on the button, SB completes, and BB checks.

I don't make this limp but Villain didn't feel strong and I thought I might be able to win this one outright with some aggressive play off the flop. I'm good with math (but not with regards to how to apply it to poker) and I'd be much obliged if someone could point me in the right direction with regards to interpreting how this hand looks from an objective standpoint. I plugged this hand into pokerstove and it looks like my pre-flop pot equity is between
20% and 25%, so maybe my limp wasn't as bad as I thought.


The Flop: 9c 5c 5h

SB bets, BB folds, Villain calls, Hero calls.

I put SB on a 9 (which he later confirmed) but I wasn't sure if Villain caught a piece, was on a draw, or wanted to see another card with Ace high. With my draw and SB on a 9, I knew my flush would be good against him but I wanted him to lead into villain again to find out where he was so I called. I wasn't drawing to the nuts and wanted to see another card myself.


The Turn: 2d

SB bet, Villain raised...

OK, so he's representing a 5. A5s is probably the weakest hand I could see him playing but there's only 2 ways to make that hand and and he was first in with 4 to act behind him (which seems poor). Against A5, all of my club outs are good except the Ac.

A9 seemed plausible for the action with 8 ways to make that hand in which case jacks, twos, and any club are outs.

I knew villain would pay me off if I hit (he called two cold earlier after BB had called two cold when I first raised my flopped set on the river - how could he not know he was beat?). I also thought SB might come along; especially if I misread him and he was defending a 5 by charging me for my flush draw.

I paused while working all this out and villain got impatient. I called. SB folded and villain was incredulous that I had called, got smug and exclaimed, "clubs aren't coming".


The Results:

are unimportant, but I'll disclose them later. I'm more interested in the analysis.

---

Yes, playing the hand at all and calling the turn 2-bet were questionable (at least I question them). It was worth it to hear the smack-down. The Pai-Gow line is totally classic [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So I plugged the hand into Pokerstove (and maybe GuyOnTilt or somebody can help me interpret the results).


Pre-flop:

Hand 1: 21.7874 % [ 00.21 00.00 ] { 96o }
Hand 2: 20.1921 % [ 00.19 00.02 ] { random }
Hand 3: 34.4633 % [ 00.34 00.01 ] { As5s }
Hand 4: 23.5572 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { Jc2c }


After the Flop:

Hand 1: 10.3359 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { 96o }
Hand 2: 64.1196 % [ 00.64 00.00 ] { As5s }
Hand 3: 25.5445 % [ 00.26 00.00 ] { Jc2c }

Hand 1: 13.5997 % [ 00.08 00.06 ] { 96o }
Hand 2: 44.5829 % [ 00.39 00.06 ] { A9s, A9o }
Hand 3: 41.8174 % [ 00.42 00.00 ] { Jc2c }

My flop call turned out to be wrong, but right if my read was correct.


On the Turn:

Hand 1: 04.7619 % [ 00.05 00.00 ] { 96o }
Hand 2: 76.9841 % [ 00.77 00.00 ] { As5s }
Hand 3: 18.2540 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { Jc2c }

Hand 1: 09.1270 % [ 00.06 00.04 ] { 96o }
Hand 2: 58.9286 % [ 00.55 00.04 ] { A9s, A9o }
Hand 3: 31.9444 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { Jc2c }

If I hadn't put him on the wrong hand. the turn looks like this.

Hand 1: 08.2540 % [ 00.05 00.03 ] { 96o }
Hand 2: 62.5397 % [ 00.60 00.03 ] { A9s, A5s, A9o }
Hand 3: 29.2063 % [ 00.29 00.00 ] { Jc2c }

Perpetuating the mistake, but it still looks ok if SB comes along.

Hand 1: 70.6169 % [ 00.71 00.00 ] { A9s, A5s, A9o }
Hand 2: 29.3831 % [ 00.29 00.00 ] { Jc2c }


Question: Have I applied pokerstove reasonably well here or is there a better approach?

[bugstud]

you should stop trying to bluff out calling stations at 4/8 B&M and not play J2s on the button after a limper.

[thirddan]

playing J2 is pretty bad, but if you decide that you must i think you should raise it in order to get rid of the blinds...you have a much better chance of "outplaying" villain HU and winning hte pot than you do of "outplaying" 3/4 players/calling stations postflop...

[MN_Mime]

Agreed.

I just didn't respect the limper (who plays way too many hands) or BB and thought I could use my position to steal one. You're saying just wait for real hands and take the money they're just hand me... and you're right.

Once I enter the hand, any thoughts?

[MN_Mime]

You're right on both counts.

The trifecta is that I should have found a way to get away for my allotted 30 minutes to deal with fatigue or gotten away from the juicy game entirely.

Thanks!

[MN_Mime]

Well, I was hoping to hear some commentary on the play of the hand rather than scripted, "that was a lousy and loose pre-flop call", but I promised results so here they are:


The River: Qc

Villain bet (doesn't he trust his read?), Hero raised, Villain called and went apeshit over the quality of my hand, tabling As5s.


Thanks for reading [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[adamstewart]

MN-Mime,

You're not nearly as good as you think you are.

Sorry.


Adam

[DrewOnTilt]

The issue of the preflop limp has already been discussed. Since you asked for discussion on your postflop play, here we go:

[ QUOTE ]
The Hand:

Villain limps, Hero limps Jc2c on the button, SB completes, and BB checks.

The Flop: 9c 5c 5h

SB bets, BB folds, Villain calls, Hero calls.

The Turn: 2d

SB bet, Villain raised...

[/ QUOTE ]

This pot is tiny and the board is paired. Get out without a second thought.

If Villain has a PP or a 5, then he has a number of redraws if you make your flush on the turn. SB also has a small number of outs if he is playing the 9. If someone has the 5, then your Jack outs are no good.

I would not continue past this flop for even a single bet unless the pot contained AT LEAST 6 BB. On the turn, you were not anywhere near the necessary odds to coldcall a raise on this type of draw. Dude - fold that flop!

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude - fold that flop!


[/ QUOTE ]

I *raise* this flop. (Assuming I made the horrible preflop limp).

Adam

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dude - fold that flop!


[/ QUOTE ]

I *raise* this flop. (Assuming I made the horrible preflop limp).

Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm...interesting. Explain your reasoning? That pot is small and not worth chasing IMHO. Are you raising for a free card? That pot isn't big enough to interest me, free card or no.