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  #1  
Old 02-12-2005, 12:59 AM
SenecaJim SenecaJim is offline
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Default close odds ?

5-10 live. I have 8T suited in bb. Flop comes 74J rainbow. There's 8 sb's in pot. All 8 call flop. Turn is an 8. There are 8 bb's in pot. Bet and call to me, 10 bb in pot.

inside is 10.5 to 1 and one player left behind me. so, exact math, I think I shouldn't call. My thinking is another player with a T and I split ( if 9 hits ) and
QT is common holding in ssh and beats me, so I folded. Player behind me did call.

Was this the right play, and if it wasn't or it's one of those either way plays, was my thinking right? a nine did hit and I would have split but I couldn't care less about that, Just wanna know if my play/ thinking is what it should be or too timid?
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  #2  
Old 02-12-2005, 01:51 PM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Default Re: close odds ?

While QT is indeed a hand many players routinely limp with in small stakes, at a table where 8 players are seeing the flop and then calling a flop bet, I'm thinking hands like J3s, K2o, and 54o are probably about equally popular. So I don't think you need to assume QT is out there.

But it is true that you could catch and then end up chopping or even losing, and with so many other players seeing the flop, there is a decent chance that someone else holds a ten. Something else to consider, though, is that the two 8's that would give you trips could be outs for you. Also, catching two pair could possibly give you the best hand, though if a ten fell that could easily give someone else a straight. (And possibly someone has one already.)

I don't think it's easy to estimate your outs very accurately here.

In any event, I think the one-card gutshot by itself should be folded. When we add in the trips possibilities, though, I think the decision becomes closer, especially if we're not too worried about it getting checkraised behind us.

I probably would have gone ahead and called.
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  #3  
Old 02-12-2005, 01:57 PM
feelixthegreek feelixthegreek is offline
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Default Re: close odds ?

You also have to factor the possibility of a raise behind you. How many were left to act behind you? If I were certain of the passivity of the table (it certainly seems that way), I'd certainly call. If I had to fear a raise, it becomes a tougher decision.

Sorry. I didn't notice you said there was one more to act. I'm much more likely to call here.
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  #4  
Old 02-12-2005, 03:41 PM
SenecaJim SenecaJim is offline
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Default Re: close odds ?

This is exactly kinda soundboard tutoring I feel helps my game A LOT. Thanks to both of you. Good point Nick. I need to focus on extra outs more.
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  #5  
Old 02-12-2005, 03:52 PM
foofighter foofighter is offline
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Default Re: close odds ?

this is common problem i have at my local live 3/6 game. so many callers preflop its hard to make these close calls. If your ending the betting then call more times then not thought youre usually in the middle somewhere and u must play the players. This is part of my game im trying to work on most right now. Paying attention to what cards they are showing down so my choices become eaisier later.
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