I didn't expect to be raising this turn

reubenf · #1 02-11-2005, 03:28 AM

This hand was interesting to me because I was caught offguard when I realized I could be raising the turn.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (2.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Dead · #2 02-11-2005, 03:29 AM

I do not raise the turn here. One card is left to come. See what the river brings.

reubenf · #3 02-11-2005, 03:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I do not raise the turn here. One card is left to come. See what the river brings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have equity to raise. I didn't realize it at the time, but I even have equity to cap after the two folds.

Or do you think I'm trading river bets for turn bets?

Entity · #4 02-11-2005, 03:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but I even have equity to cap after the two folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite. Capping is +EV against 3 but -EV against 2. You're 2.06:1 to hit here. I like the first raise though.

cold_cash · #5 02-11-2005, 03:41 AM

I don't think you have equity to cap with only two opponents, but it's close.

I count 9 flush outs, and 6 straight outs (because of the heart draw). Discount the flush outs by a hair because it's not to the nuts.

With these 15ish you're a little more than a 2:1 underdog to make your hand, so with only 2 opponents you'd be just short of breaking even.

Note: I'm not very good at doing these kind of calculations, but I thought I'd give it a shot and see how close I am to being correct. I don't know what kind of effect, if any, the dead money that UTG+1 contributed has on things.

reubenf · #6 02-11-2005, 03:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not quite. Capping is +EV against 3 but -EV against 2. You're 2.06:1 to hit here. I like the first raise though.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's counting all of the hearts and Kings as 0 outs, yes?

cold_cash · #7 02-11-2005, 03:50 AM

I think giving you 15 outs is pretty reasonable.

Your flush outs should be reduced a bit (but not much) because it's the second nut hand.

I wouldn't count all 8 outs for your open-ender. The hearts have to be discounted some.

If we discount those, and take into account the times the Kings might be good, I think it balances out to around 15, which still leaves you over a 2:1 dog.

reubenf · #8 02-11-2005, 04:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think giving you 15 outs is pretty reasonable.

Your flush outs should be reduced a bit (but not much) because it's the second nut hand.

I wouldn't count all 8 outs for your open-ender. The hearts have to be discounted some.

If we discount those, and take into account the times the Kings might be good, I think it balances out to around 15, which still leaves you over a 2:1 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

15 is what I counted during the hand, which is why I didn't cap. I arrived at that by counting 6 OESD (no hearts) + 9 clubs. I figured that the non-nutness of the club draw about evened out with not counting the hearts, because only one of these guys is likely drawing to a flush and he can't be drawing to both. I completely failed to count the Kings as anything, which I think pushes it to a cap. Let me know if any of this reasoning is flawed.

Entity · #9 02-12-2005, 02:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think giving you 15 outs is pretty reasonable.

Your flush outs should be reduced a bit (but not much) because it's the second nut hand.

I wouldn't count all 8 outs for your open-ender. The hearts have to be discounted some.

If we discount those, and take into account the times the Kings might be good, I think it balances out to around 15, which still leaves you over a 2:1 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

15 is what I counted during the hand, which is why I didn't cap. I arrived at that by counting 6 OESD (no hearts) + 9 clubs. I figured that the non-nutness of the club draw about evened out with not counting the hearts, because only one of these guys is likely drawing to a flush and he can't be drawing to both. I completely failed to count the Kings as anything, which I think pushes it to a cap. Let me know if any of this reasoning is flawed.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think hearts are not good outs for you, you have a 13 outer (4 OESD non-heart, non-clubs, and 9 clubs).

reubenf · #10 02-12-2005, 02:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you think hearts are not good outs for you, you have a 13 outer (4 OESD non-heart, non-clubs, and 9 clubs).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I see my error now. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]