Questionable Preflop play

shaundeeb · #1 02-10-2005, 04:06 PM

Ok heres my reads SB has been moving in a lot PF he has done 2 limp reriases with A10os. He has pushed about 10 hands in the last 30min so his reraise allin does not scare me much. The MP made the raise to 10 and it took him a long long time to call the allin so I figured he was weak enough where my 99 was the best starting hand. Also, the pot sizes are messed up badly. The ending pot was ~260$
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($61.3)
BB ($60.75)
UTG ($98)
MP ($162.3)
CO ($83)
Hero ($86.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, MP raises to $10, CO calls $10, Hero calls $10, 1 fold, MP calls $51.30, CO folds, MP calls $24.75.

Final Pot: $109.05
Main Pot: $109.05, between SB, MP and Hero.

kurto · #2 02-10-2005, 04:16 PM

Your notes are a little confusing. You said the SB has been going all in... but it doesn't appear that he's in this hand. (the text says its you, the CO and MP)

I'm less a gambler then many. I think if a guy is aggressive going all in as you say, you can lay a better trap. I also think if it was headsup, your play would be better.

I tend to be an overthinker... but here's my thoughts. If I notice someone constantly goes allin/overbets, then I'm going to stop limping with any speculative hands. I'm going to lay a trap. (Unless the allin guy has already folded or limped)

IF your other opponents are at least as observant, the guy calling the all-in may have thought the same?

"The MP made the raise to 10 and it took him a long long time to call the allin" Perhaps he has pocket 10s or Jacks and is questioning if this is the hand to go to the felt?

99% of the time I'm playing 9s for set value. Since the money's all in and you're only getting 3-1 on your money, you don't have the odds to play it for a set.

I'll be curious to hear the thoughts of others who may have a deeper understanding of the math involved then I do.

shaundeeb · #3 02-10-2005, 04:18 PM

for some reason the conveter didn't work going to try it again. SB pushed for 61$ after my call.

passion · #4 02-10-2005, 04:28 PM

I don't mind calling the raise PF with 99, but when SB moves in and MP calls - I think you can assume that you are behind and fold (unless MP is also a crazy LAG). Here I would not really be worried about SB as much as I would be worried about MP.

Passion.

shaundeeb · #5 02-10-2005, 04:34 PM

As I said in my notes I could tell MP did not like the reraise. therefore I put him on 2 overs like AK-J and maybe KQs. Since I put SB on another very weak hand maybe a lower PP I figured getting 2 to 1 odds on my money vs a smaller PP and 2 overs is def worth putting my money in the middle. Also, there was a small but still decent sized chance that MP had 77 or 88.

Tilt · #6 02-10-2005, 04:49 PM

Its not good play. Anytime your best case scenario is a coin flip you should probably just fold.

NiceCatch · #7 02-10-2005, 05:38 PM

I agree with earlier poster. 99 should be played for set value... why risk your stack on a marginal hand like that? Sounds more like a tournament play to me (short-handed or short-stacked). Though if there is a mathematical justification for the play, I'd like to hear it.

solid · #8 02-10-2005, 06:21 PM

Well, the mathematical justification is this. Hero's getting more than 2:1 on the call and thus he'd only need to expect to win the hand a little less than 33% of the time to make it an EV neutral call. So, it comes down to how often hero thinks he's up against both players having only overcards or some combination of overcards and smaller pairs vs. one of them actually having an overpair to his 9s. If the probability of an overpair being present is small enough, it's a good call.

Tilt · #9 02-10-2005, 06:32 PM

This is what you pray for....

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9c 896849 65.43 470100 34.29 3805 0.28 0.655
8s 8h 108615 7.92 1237390 90.27 24749 1.81 0.088
8d Ah 340541 24.84 1005464 73.35 24749 1.81 0.257

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9c 918756 67.03 442030 32.25 9968 0.73 0.673
8s 8h 238838 17.42 1121948 81.85 9968 0.73 0.177
7s 7h 203192 14.82 1157594 84.45 9968 0.73 0.151

This is what you can expect most of the time here in my opinion:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9c 237033 17.29 1128495 82.33 5226 0.38 0.174
Jc Jh 629770 45.94 735758 53.68 5226 0.38 0.461
As Kc 498725 36.38 866803 63.24 5226 0.38 0.365

solid · #10 02-10-2005, 06:37 PM

Even situations like this:
Kc Qc 489302 35.70 878106 64.06 3346 0.24 0.358
Ad Jh 432693 31.57 934715 68.19 3346 0.24 0.316
9s 9c 445413 32.49 921995 67.26 3346 0.24 0.326

Kc Qc 325266 23.73 1032789 75.34 12699 0.93 0.241
Ad Qh 435242 31.75 922813 67.32 12699 0.93 0.322
9s 9c 597547 43.59 769217 56.12 3990 0.29 0.437

make it a somewhat +EV call, but we're in no position to judge how likely each is. All I was saying was that, depending on the players, there are situations where this is a good call.