Call or 3-bet the river? AK

[Acesover8s]

Wild 20-40 game, been here 30 hands. I am the tightest player by far. This is the first hand without 4 limpers.

Anyway, LP player limps, SB calls, I raise with AsKs. all call.

Flop is KcTc4h. Check, I bet, button calls, SB folds.

Turn is Jh(KcTc4h). I bet, button calls.

River is the Kh(JhKcTc4h). I bet, button raises. Call or raise, and is it close?

My read on the button was that he was loose preflop, and fairly aggressive post-flop, but had showed down strong hands when raising.

[Rex Bluett]

I think he often raises the turn if he has you beat , and yeah to me it's close you beat KQ K9 Kx or bluff and lose to slowplayed set straight 2 pair that filled and backdoor flush I lean towards raising but if you really think this guy only raises when he's really strong a call is ok.

[JAA]

Based on your observation that he has tended to have a strong hand when he raises postflop, I think that this is a call. A lot of hands could have gotten there with the Kh, especially a marginal suited hand (or q9) in LP from a guy who is too loose preflop. It is true that if he has KQ or K9 you have him beat, but I think there are too many hands he could have made to justify a 3-bet. I say this especially since if you 3-bet you may be faced with having to call if he caps. Bleh.

Even if this time you call and he shows you K9, you would still be making the right move long-run.

- Jags

[TStoneMBD]

if you can fold to a 4bet then i think reraising is better, but since you almost certainly cant then i think calling is the optimal play.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
if you can fold to a 4bet then i think reraising is better, but since you almost certainly cant then i think calling is the optimal play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting analysis! I think it may even be correct.

There are 6 cards that his king could be reasonable be paired with and still beat you. 12 possible str8s. 3 possible 44s. I think that Kx suited is VERY possible, even likely. This is what I think he has. 8 possible Kx suiteds that you beat. HOWEVER, in this aggressive game he did not raise first in, LP. I think that makes any AQ VERY unlikeley. I also think it makes KJ unlikely. So the question I ask myself is, does he have trip fours/KJ/KT or Kxs? The answer is, most of the time, he has Kxs.

Reraise. Consider folding to a 4-bet.

CSC

[JAA]

Most of what you say makes sense, but I think you are overlooking one important factor...The Kh on the river makes a flush, and there are many suited hands loosey would limp with in LP. If the river was an offsuit king, I would be much more inclined to raise, as you recommend. Based on the fact that it was not, I still think that this is a call.

-Jags

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of what you say makes sense, but I think you are overlooking one important factor...The Kh on the river makes a flush, and there are many suited hands loosey would limp with in LP. If the river was an offsuit king, I would be much more inclined to raise, as you recommend. Based on the fact that it was not, I still think that this is a call.


[/ QUOTE ]

This was my main fear going on at the time, that he had a hand like JQ of hearts. Although I would've raised that hand on the flop and the turn, many opponents might not have.

Results are, I finally just called, he showed K6 of diamonds and MHIG and I felt very weak-passive.

How much of a factor should I be thinking that he is less likely to be raising me with trip kings and more likely with a set turned full/straight or flush since there is only king unaccounted for?

[JAA]

Even though he showed you the case K this time, I think you definitely made the right move. There are simply a.) too many hands that could have gotten there and b.) too few 2nd best hands he could have for you to 3-bet. You weren't weak/passive.

- Jags

[PassiveCaller]

call is just fine.

[elysium]

hi AA88

call, if the button isn't wild, it isn't close.