KK meets turn resistance

sin808 · #1 02-09-2005, 04:23 AM

No reads on the villains in this hand, new to the table.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls $0.75 (All-In), Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players, 1 all-in)
BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero ??

TwoShedsJackson · #2 02-09-2005, 06:27 AM

With a bet and a raise into the preflop raiser on the flop and turn it's unlikely an over pair is going to be good here: JJ, JT, Q9 all beat you and are the sort of hands that many people will call preflop with. I fold.

mackthefork · #3 02-09-2005, 07:52 AM

I call this down, hope a) river pairs one of the rags or he has AJ and b) when it does pair its good. You are calling 2bb to win a possible 19 more bbs you only need to be good 10% of the time. I can't see a fold being correct.

Regards Mack

jaxUp · #4 02-09-2005, 08:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You are calling 2bb to win a possible 19 more bbs you only need to be good 10% of the time.
Regards Mack

[/ QUOTE ]

but it seems to me like we are calling 3BB to win 22 (if it's single bet on the river), or 4BB to win 25 (for 2 river bets), since we still have to take into consideration the river play (note 1 player's all-in). this means we have to be good either 1 in 7 or 1 in 6 times respectively. I think maybe there is something to be said for implied odds here, that we can make up BBs if we hit a K. I am not sure how to factor this in. Nevertheless, I think it will be kind of negated by the chance that it's 3-bet behind us. I say fold according to my math because you won't be good as often is necessary. That being said, my math may in fact be wrong, and I would like some confirmation as to its (in)coreectness. I am trying the math thing today. If I suck too much just tell me to stop.

Vern · #5 02-09-2005, 08:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No reads on the villains in this hand, new to the table.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls $0.75 (All-In), Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players, 1 all-in)
BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I fold the Turn. You are likely not ahead at this point and unless all three are overplaying their hands. Your draw to a set still does not beat the possible made straight. You are getting 10:1 on the turn with the possibility that it is re-raised by BB and even if you hit, a set might not be good. I think I fold the turn expecting to have to put in at least 4 more BB just to have a chance to see a show down. I think UTG has the Q9 for the made straight, BB has two pair and thinks UTG may have been pumping the flop with a flush draw and that UTG+1 is drawing to the flush or straight.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer: I am by no means an expert at any of this.

jaxUp · #6 02-09-2005, 08:24 AM

Vern, I gotta tell ya, I think that pretty soon you need to lose the disclaimer, or use it selctively, not as a signature. Quite frankly, you are pretty damn good (not just from this post). Maybe I'll steal it from you...

EDIT: I really don't want to suck your dick here, which is pretty much what it sounds like, but just thought u should lose the sig and get a more assertive one like "and that's how it's done bitches"

mackthefork · #7 02-09-2005, 08:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but it seems to me like we are calling 3BB to win 22 (if it's single bet on the river), or 4BB to win 25 (for 2 river bets), since we still have to take into consideration the river play (note 1 player's all-in). this means we have to be good either 1 in 7 or 1 in 6 times respectively. I think maybe there is something to be said for implied odds here, that we can make up BBs if we hit a K. I am not sure how to factor this in. Nevertheless, I think it will be kind of negated by the chance that it's 3-bet behind us. I say fold according to my math because you won't be good as often is necessary. That being said, my math may in fact be wrong, and I would like some confirmation as to its (in)coreectness. I am trying the math thing today. If I suck too much just tell me to stop.

[/ QUOTE ]

No you are correct I thought it was heads up on the turn I see its 3 handed now, that makes a fold more likely to be correct. I can see now you are probably right about folding.

Apologies Mack

Vern · #8 02-09-2005, 08:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Vern, I gotta tell ya, I think that pretty soon you need to lose the disclaimer, or use it selctively, not as a signature. Quite frankly, you are pretty damn good (not just from this post). Maybe I'll steal it from you...

EDIT: I really don't want to suck your dick here, which is pretty much what it sounds like, but just thought u should lose the sig and get a more assertive one like "and that's how it's done bitches"

[/ QUOTE ]

Good for a laugh, but I really play for fun and that is the angle my replies come from and sometimes I am way off base with them too. The disclaimer stands until I start charging for advice. Thanks for the chuckle. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

TwoShedsJackson · #9 02-09-2005, 08:34 AM

The possible 3bet and cap behind Hero and similar action on the river makes this a definite fold, I think.

sin808 · #10 02-09-2005, 07:08 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls $0.75 (All-In), Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players, 1 all-in)
BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds, BB calls.

River: (21 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 24 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Ah Td (one pair, tens).
UTG has 9c 5h (one pair, fives).
UTG+1 has 5c 3c (one pair, fives).
UTG+2 has 8s Qs (one pair, eights).
Outcome: BB wins 24 BB.