Was my play completely obvious to this opponent?

[salloch]

Villian called my river bet *very* quickly and turned over a very vulnerable (but winning) hand. Was my line totally obvious? No great reads on either player.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) converter

Button ($60.20)
Hero ($61.95)
BB ($16.70)
UTG ($51.50)
UTG+1 ($55.30)
MP1 ($21.15)
MP2 ($37.60)
MP3 ($14)
CO ($53.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $0.50, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $4</font>, Button folds, Hero calls $2, UTG calls $2.

I thought that BB caught a piece and that MP2 might be on a flush draw. I pretty much ignored the min raise. (mistake?)

Turn: ($14.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, UTG folds, MP2 calls $15.

After the call, I thought I was in trouble.

River: ($44.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $42.45 (All-In)</font>, MP2 calls $18.10 (All-In).

I knew if I got called, I would loose, but with the scary board, and me never having shown weakness, I thought there was a decent chance he would fold to a $18 bet.

Was this a horrible bluff on my part? I have the feeling villian saw right through it.

Final Pot: $105.05

[tbach24]

It wasn't obvious, it's just that PP people won't let go of what could possibly be the best hand. I'd probably fold pre-flop, but since you didn't I would've taken the same line as you on the flop. Check/called a moderate bet on the turn, and thrown out a blocking bet on the river.

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably fold pre-flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 1:9 on the money here. I think you have to call. Just play it cautious on the flop and beyond...

[ QUOTE ]
Check/called a moderate bet on the turn, and thrown out a blocking bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree...

-Gryph

[tbach24]

I realize that you're getting 9-to-1 on the money here, but you don't flop trips or better with this hand 1/10 times, do you?

[amoeba]

you have to flop 2 pairs or better in my opinion but you don't flop 2 pair 1 time in 10 and 2 pair really isn't that solid. This is easy fold preflop.

[tbach24]

Oh yeah, two pair or better, somehow that hand always escapes my head because of the whole my bottom 2 getting counterfeited thing.

[etgryphon]

The implied odds on a hand make this a call...

If the table was FULL of TAG or Tight\Passives I can see mucking it here. But with 4 players at this level one is probably going to pay you off. You will also see a lot of people playing A7-A2 that you can take advantage of.

-Gryph

[tbach24]

But there are also people playing A9-AK.

[amoeba]

your implied odds are high when there are people who have hands they are willing to back with their whole stack, like when they have TPTK or overpair in a raised pot and you have a set with a midpocket pair.

with a limped pot, they aren't going to back their whole stack with A weak kicker and you aren't that confident in your own kicker. If you hit two pair, you have to hope somebody hits lower two pair to pay you off.

There are also lots of boards in which you aren't confident getting your money in with 2 pair.

Lets say you flop trips. do you think you can get somebody's stack with 88X flop when they only hold a single pair?

[etgryphon]

Ok...Spot on...

I think I have to think about this a little bit. I tend to make these calls because at these levels people not only play there good hands they tend to bluff too aggressively. Seeing as you will get the 2 pair or better 4.5% of the time you only have to make on average $10.61 per time that you make your two pair or better and that doesn't seem too hard to do. But, I see your point and I think I have to rethink it over.

So you're saying that you would need a raise in there somewhere PF to indicate to you that someone is willing to go to the felt to make this a profitable move.

-Gryph