more isolation + 3rd barrel river

detruncate · #1 02-07-2005, 11:04 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

This isolation raise is less clear than the one in my other post. Villain has only been around 2-3 orbits, but he's 50+/25+/2+
so far -- I'm operating under the assumption that he's either LAGgy or some variant of TA/sLA and catching good starters, and I'm leaning toward the former.

I don't think I've played a single hand in the last few orbits, though I may have check/folded out of the blinds.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 6 folds, UTG+1 calls.

I get what I want. Let's see what happens

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Nice flop. Clear bet.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

I likely have fold equity, and there's no point letting Villain see a free river... especially if I'll feel any obligation to call a river bet -- which I might have to do unless the board gets scarier. The c/r possibility also doesn't bother me too much.

River: (6.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets...

I rarely make this play, but this seemed like a good time for it. If I'm called, I'm almost certainly beaten. However, there's also a very good chance that I'll lose most of the time if I check. The key decisions seems to be whether Villain will lay down a better ace (or small pair?) often enough to make the bet +EV.

If Villain caught a piece of the board, I think he either flopped/turned a monster he's slowplaying or would have tested me at some point. He's shown a marked tendency toward aggression, and this is the sort of board that is unlikely to have helped me (other than wheel-draw possibilities). He may be on a big overpair, but again I think he would have capped pf or bet/raised at some point.

Villain hasn't seemed to show down hands that he thinks are beaten. He might take a shot with them, but there's been no evidence so far that he'd go passive with A high, or call along in some sort of way ahead/way behind type groove.

It all seemed to add up to a bet. Anyone prefer a check?

As an aside, I'm aware that I read a lot into the situation given my sketchy read. I don't often give a lot of weight to stats, especially this early. However, the pertinent points seemed to be that he was demonstrably aggressive both pre and post flop, and seemed capable of folding a hand he thought was beaten. Out of the 10-15 hands he's seen the flop with, I've actively watched at least 4-5.

Shillx · #2 02-08-2005, 01:06 AM

Either the turn bet or the river bet is bad. You can't have fold equity on the turn and expect him to call the river with less then A high. This just makes zero sense dude. If he calls on the river, you are going to lose if he is capable of laying down a hand on 4th. I like a turn check to induce a bluff against this guy.

Brad

toss · #3 02-08-2005, 01:25 AM

I'd like it more if it was short-handed. And I agree with you putting too much weight behind your read. Not enough hands.

I either check the turn or the river.

detruncate · #4 02-08-2005, 02:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Either the turn bet or the river bet is bad. You can't have fold equity on the turn and expect him to call the river with less then A high. This just makes zero sense dude. If he calls on the river, you are going to lose if he is capable of laying down a hand on 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know. That's exactly the reasoning behind my river bet.

The question was whether I fold his bigger ace/small pair often enough to make the river bet pay. The problem with the "check to induce" line is that I didn't think I'd win often enough against his bluff.

detruncate · #5 02-08-2005, 02:24 AM

It's way too few hands to make a read based on the numbers, but the combination of clear aggressive tendencies + the feeling I had about his game from the hands I'd seen him play gave me enough information to consider making a play like this.

But point taken.

My feeling was that he'd probably fold AK, AQ, AJ, AT and call with any pair. I also didn't think it likely that I was going to be bluff raised, and was obviously prepared to fold.

Probably not a good hand to post given how much of it relied on my read of the situation. Was just curious if anyone hated the play. And I didn't want to get myself into trying to do the math. I have bonuses to clear and more than enough ways to avoid playing.

wrto4556 · #6 02-08-2005, 02:46 AM

The turn bet was good. A semi-bluff with alot of fold equity is always going to be an auto-bet.

However, his call on the turn makes me think he has a pocket pair. Overcards hit the flop but he doesn't give you credit for a better hand and is afraid to raise to find out. Yikes! To answer your question...it doesn't look like he's going to fold enough on the river for you to turn a profit. 6.75BB pot. If he folds 1 in 6 times, you turn a profit. Dubious...

toss · #7 02-08-2005, 12:30 PM

Now that I think about it, it can't be too harmful to classify a player after a few rings. If you felt you had a good read on him, then I like your river bet more.