Party 15/30: 99 utg

WillMagic · #1 02-07-2005, 07:18 PM

I've been sitting at this table for four or five orbits. It's pretty passive for 15/30, with two or three guys who like to coldcall, and a couple of strong players. The button in this hand I read as a strong tight-aggressive.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button raises, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button 3-bets, BB folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (10.33 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

River: (13.33 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero calls, CO folds.

Final Pot: 15.33 BB

jgorham · #2 02-07-2005, 07:23 PM

Here I feel like based on your read you can lay this hand down on the river. Against an average opponent I would never suggest that, but I don't see a 2+2 type player betting into 2 callers with overcards. Anyone agree or am I advocating a bad fold?

J.R. · #3 02-07-2005, 07:25 PM

I've only made a few forays into this game but I'd open-raise.

I'd consider capping the flop to put pressure on CO (although given he called 2 already he may not be folding) unless I felt button couldn't 3-bet the flop with overcards, but I doubt that would be the case.

Do strong players 3-bet and take free cards in this came? I am leery of a turn check with at least one opponent clearly on a draw.

Do they continue to value bet big aces with 2 opponents (one of whom looks like he is at least calling down) when checked to on the river? I am concered you may miss value with a river check.

Richard Berg · #4 02-07-2005, 07:27 PM

He could have A8s, but a premium pair (or other big hand) looks more likely. I'd estimate his hand is worth about 7 outs on the turn.

jgorham · #5 02-07-2005, 07:30 PM

I feel like most tight aggressives wouldn't raise in this spot with A8s. Just seems pointless after that many limpers, so I didn't even consider that as a possible holding. That said after thinking this over I feel like you should lead the turn and fold to a raise.

MaxPower · #6 02-07-2005, 07:50 PM

I would raise pre-flop.

The good players will play two overcards exactly like this. Maybe this is one of my leaks, but I would call the river.

WillMagic · #7 02-07-2005, 07:51 PM

I don't think I can bet and fold to a turn raise with set outs and a gutshot probably counting for between 4-5 outs (adjusted for the possible CO straight draw) and a pot of 13-14 BB's....and that means that betting the turn is suspect when i'm putting in two bets against an overpair and only one against AK-AJ and KQ.

I think your first analysis was correct. A strong player isn't betting the river into two opponents with overcards like, ever, and I think that, though I hate doing it, a river laydown is correct. It's that whole concept of a protected pot.

Will

WillMagic · #8 02-07-2005, 07:57 PM

I generally do raise 99 UTG, but I thought the likely future states were (given my read of the table as somewhat passive for 15/30): I raise and get a 3-4 pot for two bets out of position, or I limp and get a 5-6 way pot for one bet out of position, and I like the second state a lot more. The classic case of giving up some preflop expectation for postflop expectation...and I think that in this case, against this lineup that the tradeoff is worth it.

Will

MaxPower · #9 02-07-2005, 08:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I generally do raise 99 UTG, but I thought the likely future states were (given my read of the table as somewhat passive for 15/30): I raise and get a 3-4 pot for two bets out of position, or I limp and get a 5-6 way pot for one bet out of position, and I like the second state a lot more. The classic case of giving up some preflop expectation for postflop expectation...and I think that in this case, against this lineup that the tradeoff is worth it.

Will

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking it over, I think betting the river and folding to a raise is best. You are more of a dog when you check-call then when you bet and get called.

jgorham · #10 02-07-2005, 08:12 PM

Yeah you are right I missed the straight outs. Good Point sir.