How's easy is this river bet?

sin808 · #1 02-07-2005, 02:14 PM

I haven't been watching the players too closely at this table. SB bought in 7 hands ago for $5. Button is 32/9/2 over 43 hands, hasn't gotten out of line that I've noticed, so probably decent.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 5 folds, Button raises, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls $0.50 (All-In), BB folds, Hero raises, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Nick Royale · #2 02-07-2005, 02:19 PM

Are you folding to a raise?

sin808 · #3 02-07-2005, 02:25 PM

yes

edit: umm...most likely.

Nick Royale · #4 02-07-2005, 02:35 PM

If you could safely fold to a raise, a bet would be mandatory (of course). In this big pot I'm not confident I can fold for a raise, so I might check/call. This line could easily induce him to bluff.

BTW I would have bet the flop. There are many possible draws out there that would call a bet, charge them.

dinero2433 · #5 02-07-2005, 02:40 PM

Have to bet out against a coordinated board, if you don't bet out with a set as a matter of course. Plus, the button could check, giving your opponents a disastrous free card. Best case scenario, you bet, button raises, making it two cold to the rest of the field.

DMBFan23 · #6 02-07-2005, 02:44 PM

the only hand he really might realistically have that beats you is KJ. ridiculously easy bet, and I'm not so sure it's an auto fold to a raise - there'd be 13.5 BB in the pot, which would entice someone who's aggressive to throw a bluff out there. if his hand was slightly less defined then I would say the fold to the raise is easy. I probably do fold to it on my more fold-tastic days though.

meep_42 · #7 02-07-2005, 02:47 PM

Not in a million years am I folding to a raise.

Villain most likely has AK or KQ.

-d

McGahee · #8 02-07-2005, 02:50 PM

Maybe I have "monsters under the bed" syndrome, but I think you're either winning 0 or losing 2 with a bet here (1 if you fold to a raise). I don't understand why this wouldn't be a check/call; as a check could easily induce a bluff, and it would be an easy call.

Al P · #9 02-07-2005, 02:51 PM

Looks like he has AK with a small chance he has a badly played KK.

I don't see him having a jack or six here but the SB might.

I would have bet the flop though. Just think if you checked it and it checked through and the turn and river streets were reversed. That 8 would make you throw up and you gave it to your opponents for free.

Edit - nm on betting the flop, looks like the button is aggro enough by your stats to be confident that he'll bet with missed overcards.

davelin · #10 02-07-2005, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I have "monsters under the bed" syndrome, but I think you're either winning 0 or losing 2 with a bet here (1 if you fold to a raise). I don't understand why this wouldn't be a check/call; as a check could easily induce a bluff, and it would be an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thinking is that a hand like AK or KQ may check this through on this board but call a value bet from Hero.