My SB thoughts

Easy E · #1 02-05-2005, 11:04 PM

Disclaimer: I'm rooting for the Eagles and not making a bet on the game as a result. This evaluation is therefore potentially biased.

Here are the areas that I considered as primary:

Eagles defense vs. Dillon and Brady- We don't know for sure how good the Eagles secondary really is.

The last 6 real regular season games that the Eagles played came against the Giants, Redskins, Cowboys and Packers, none of which were known as offensive juggernauts. I'm ignoring the last two games of the season.
In the playoffs, they went against two dome teams:
- a less-than balanced Vikings offense that was behind significantly for most of the game
- an overrated Atlanta offense that forgot to run and also played from behind the entire game

The Eagles secondary and linebackers will have to do a tremendous job shutting down the passing scheme of Brady, in order to help out Trotter and the line contain Dillon and the ball-control offense that crushed the Colts (by keeping them off of the field)

Getting an early lead is probably a key- if the Eagles fall behind significantly early, expect a lot of ball-control offense from the Pats to keep the Eagles off of the field.

Patriots pash rush vs. the Eagles O-line: Not only do they have to contain McNabb, they have to get pressure on him. If McNabb has all day to pass, he has shown that he can destroy good defenses with his selections.
The Pats' ability to do this will be helped by the less-than-balanced Eagles offense, who think pass first and who don't really have the running game to force the Pats to stay too honest on defense. If you let the Patriots load up on one side of the offense, we've seen what they can do in the playoffs. I'm not sure the Eagles are significantly more balanced than the Steelers or the Colts and that could prove fatal.

I don't think T.O. makes that big a difference, if any, in this game. Both the Steelers and Colts had better pure receiving corps; whether the Eagles have the better collection of all receiving weapons (backs, TEs, etc) remains to be seen. I think as a group, they are a tougher collection to account for, but we'll see if they are too much for the Pats to stretch out.
Maybe in this game we'll really get to see some of the patchwork secondary get really tested, but unless Owens is 90-95% and draws the required coverage, I'm not sure the others can get free enough to punish the Pats secondary

Westbrook on special teams- this could be a game-breaker if he gets loose. The Eagles are rated much higher on special teams than the Pats; how much of that is the weaker NFC is a question.

My final prediction- Pats win but don't cover in a game that goes over 48. Of course, since I'm not betting it, you can decide how big the salt grain has to be....

Good luck to all- here's hoping I'm wrong, the NE area has enough to celebrate from the last 12 months.

Easy E · #2 02-07-2005, 12:05 AM

I should have been correct about the over- the Eagles literally threw away at least 3 points in the first half.

This is a game that will gnaw at the Eagles, especially Donovan McNabb, the whole year- this is a game that they should have won. Patriot fans, you should be hugely relieved with this win- you could have easily been down 10-0 in the first quarter.

Three big things from the game, along with some other thoughts:

McNabb made some really bad decisions/throws, especially in the red zone. Did he really think his playmakers were that good, that he could throw up some of those balls? From what I could see, this was less of the Pats defense forcing him into bad plays and more of McNabb making poor throws and bad decisions.

I really question the play calling/offensive decisions at two points in the game:
- The decision to not go all-out for a 3-point chance at the end of the 1st half. I really didn't understand the playcalling and the lack of a 2-minute offense... which led to

- The whole offensive series when the Eagles drove down on their final score to get within 3 points. I can go with the decision not to use their two timeouts at that point (more on that later)- what I can't understand is how they could treat 5 minutes plus as if they had an entire quarter to go. The no-huddle was almost a required strategy for at least some of that drive, wasn't it?

The Eagles got exactly what they wanted- a drive for a touchdown, a quick 3 and out with two timeouts saved to limit the first two plays after that score to a total of 9 seconds. But, by not going no-huddle, by not showing some urgency during that scoring drive (where they could have saved 30 seconds or more for the final drive), they trapped themselves into a situation where they had to kick onsides, leading to the ball back in their hands on the 4 yard line with 40-some seconds left.

The points thrown away in the first half and the minutes thrown away in the second half were huge blows to the Eagles' chances in my opinion.

 One question for 2+2- on the NE series before the Eagles drove to score 21, did anyone else think that they should have called a time out after the 2nd down play left the Pats with 3rd and long? I don't know if using both timeouts would have made sense, but one timeout could have saved 40 seconds or more. Of course, the Eagles probably would have squandered it on their final scoring drive anyway.

This game proved once again the old football adage- "In big games, turnovers kill"

My hats are off to the Patriots, even with all of that. To have a patchwork secondary and then lose another player from it and still only give up 3 scores and make 3+ opportunistic picks is just amazing. Whatever magic they discovered to pull off this season, they should patent it.

[b] CCx, congrats on winning most of your bets. You deserved it, as much abuse as you took. Maybe that payday will take some of the sting out of this loss for you.

CCx · #3 02-07-2005, 01:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[b] CCx, congrats on winning most of your bets. You deserved it, as much abuse as you took. Maybe that payday will take some of the sting out of this loss for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

 Not in a million years - I'm completely devastated that we gave the game away, the money means nothing to me, but thank you very much for your thoughts i appreciate it.... [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

sublime · #4 02-07-2005, 01:52 AM

gave the game away

when exaclty did thisd happen?

did we watch the same channel? new england was in control the whole second half.

CCx · #5 02-07-2005, 01:55 AM

that happened with the three interceptions, im pretty sure we both had Fox on

sublime · #6 02-07-2005, 01:58 AM

that happened with the three interceptions

yeah. brady threw 0.

if he threw one, maybe philly would have won by 3.

oh well, he didnt.

CCx · #7 02-07-2005, 01:58 AM

yup, no denying that

your dick growing as you post each reply to me?

sublime · #8 02-07-2005, 02:00 AM

your dick growing as you post each reply to me?

nope.

but i love how, philly was gracious enough to allow NE to win. you know, like NE didnt deserve it or anything.

CCx · #9 02-07-2005, 02:01 AM

cool man, enjoy your evening

Easy E · #10 02-08-2005, 01:33 PM

The more I think about it, the more I think the Pats game-planned better, especially on defense vs. Eagles offense. I remember thinking to myself while watching the game "first down, Eagles pass is the rule"

For a pretty good comment on that, see TMQ's latest article on nfl.com

This raises the question- will the Pats have the same coaching ability next year, sublime? Is it all Bellichik, or will the loss of his top two assistants hurt more than expected?