Is this bad thinking?

[HesseJam]

I know that your BB/100 rate says only something about you long term success (provided your game strength remains constant relative to the competition).

Now, let's assume I have a bad run of -100 BB and my long-term winrate is 2.0 BB/table hour. My expectation how long it will take to get back the 100 I dropped is 50 table hours, right?

Now, If I suffer a bad beat where I would have made a sure 10 BB if not have been rivered badly I sometimes think "Damn, only because that guy got so lucky and didn't fold as he schould have I will have to play the next 5 hours just to get it back.

That is bad thinking, innit? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Piemaster]

Well yes and no. The fact is that while good play makes you a long term winner at poker, it only makes you a marginal winner. 2BB per hour really isn't a lot when the average pot is about 8BB and you play about 80 hands per hour. While it doesn't pay to dwell on bad beats, the truth is that one bad beat really can cost you many hours worth of profit.

The good news is, your long run win rate takes bad beats into account. That 2BB per hour you win, is assuming you will take the regular amount of bad beats over that course of time.

This is why poker is so swingy, one night you could take no bad beats and win a shed load of money, and the following night, you can take just 1 more than the average and lose money. There is no point looking at individual bad beats and the effect they have on your bankroll, because if you do this you will be pulling your hair out for eternity. Instead look at every bad beat as 'one you were destined to take as a winning player', and double your efforts to ensure you are not taking more bad beats than you should through sloppy play.

[Al Schoonmaker]

Very well stated, thank you.

Regards,

Al