Poker Stove and ICM calculation

[shoeman]

I did a little analysis using Poker Stove and ICM for a situation that comes up frequently in Late SNG play. Can somebody verify that I did this correctly or flame me if I screwed something up. I've been playing for some time now but have just started doing these kind of calculations.

Situation

5 players left. Folded to you in SB with K9o. Blinds are 150-300. You have 1500 and BB has 1500 after posting. No really small stacks. What do you do?
1326 starting hands in Holdem

All-In

Let's assume the player is semi-aggressive and the range of hands that will call your all-in is AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A6o, KQo-Kjo (270 total hands) That leaves 1056 hands that he will fold. So your folding equity is 80%. This could change depending on aggressiveness of player.
According to Poker Stove, if called you will win 36% of the time with this range. So you will win the blinds 80% of the time, win 7% of the time (doubling up) and lose 13% of the time (busting out of tournament).

80% - 1950 chips - 23% of prize pool (ICM calculation)
7% - 3450 chips - 35% of prize pool (ICM calculation)
13% - 0 chips - out of money

Fold

100% - 1500 chips - 19% of prize pool (ICM calculation)

Call

I really don’t think this is an option so I'm ruling it out. You give the BB the opportunity to push you all-in and force you to make a decision, you losing all folding equity and practically commit yourself should you hit/bet any part of the flop. Blinds are too high with respect to your stack size.

Conclusion

All-in: (.8*.23) + (.07*.35) + (.13 * 0) = .2085 total equity
Fold: ------------------------------------------> = .19 total equity

It's close but it appears as though a push is the more profitable play over the long term.


Note: If the BB was very loose, it appears as though a push is still a good play. While your folding equity is less, the win % will be higher when called.

Very Interesting Note: Against a known very tight player a push is a profitable play with any 2 cards as your folding equity will approach 90%. Folding equity alone gives you enough total equity to make this a winning play in the long run. (.9*.23 = .207) I'd still be reluctant to push with a 29o but it is interesting to see that it isn't a terrible play to do so.

Bob

[rachelwxm]

Seems reasonable to me although I am not the best judge. One small thing though, .208 and .19 are VERY VERy different.