Luck

guller · #1 02-03-2005, 03:19 PM

I've entered in about 8 local indian casino tourneys in my area over the last 2 years. They pay to 3rd place and average between 55 to 80 players. I've placed in the money 5 out of 8 times.

I've read most of the 2+2 books and am pretty confident in my playing ability. The question I have is how much of a factor does luck have in everyones experience? It seems like in all of the tournaments that I won or placed top 3, I was "all in" at least twice in each tourney with a dominated hand. In most cases by someone who had me covered and would have knocked me out. In each case I was very lucky and was able to double up.

Is it normal for you to have to "suck out" on someone to win or place in a tourney or am I missing something?

Sam T. · #2 02-03-2005, 03:27 PM

Sklansky says good players are at war with luck, which seems true.

But Harrington has also pointed out that in most tournaments you win, there will be at least one occasion when you are all-in and behind, but take down the pot. I suppose there are times when players will put together a huge chip lead and never look back but that is probably the exception rather than the rule.

Absolution · #3 02-03-2005, 03:42 PM

I think the word to point out there is 'win'. You can certainly place in many tournaments playing a conservative game, but if you want a good chance of winning, you'll probably be playing a little riskier and are going to need a major hand to either hold up (say a 60/40) or a come from behind when dominated.

BlackAces · #4 02-03-2005, 03:48 PM

It's quite normal. The decisions you make in a tournament are usually based on your approximation of what an opponent could have and on the odds being laid by the pot, so some of the time, you will be behind in a hand when he turns over something in the higher part of the range of hands, or when you call on a draw with proper odds. But you are supposed to win some of those hands (which should be taken into account in your reasoning).

There's a saying that if you never once turn over the worst hand when all the chips go in, you're doing something wrong.

woodguy · #5 02-03-2005, 05:14 PM

I have won tourneys where at some point during the tourney I got all my chips in as a dog and sucked out.

I have not cashed in tourneys where I made no mistakes (no glaring ones anyhow), but got beat by hands that were worse than mine when all the money went in.

It happens, that's poker. (notice the non-infringement on MLG's "cards happen")

Regards,
Woodguy

TonyS0pran0 · #6 02-03-2005, 06:35 PM

I think it is almost impossible to get far in a bug MTT without a little luck. I'd seriously doubt if anyone in a tourney with a few hundred has ever made it to the final table without getting lucky atleast once. I even saw the almighty zeejustin suck out like it was cool in a re-buy this morning... I also believe it averages out as you will probably get sucked out on.

patrick dicaprio · #7 02-03-2005, 08:56 PM

think of it this way: if you have three hands where you are a 6-4 favorite that is pretty solid right? we would all be happy with that especially if all in. but you chances of winning all three ar .6 x .6 x .6 or less than 20% so you are a 4-1 dog to win the tourney, to put it another way you have KK and the tourney has AA and you have to catch to win. so luck obviously plays a large part.

Pat